“Underlying Inflation” hottest since July 2006 (3.14%) While Core PCE Prices YoY Still Stuck At 1.6%

The New York Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) is the hottest since 2006 at 3.14%.


The FRBNY’s Underlying Inflation Gauge captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.

The “prices-only” UIG is only 2.23%. The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI) and is closer to core inflation.


Both are higher than Core PCE price YoY which is only 1.6% YoY.


“Say what?!”



3 thoughts on ““Underlying Inflation” hottest since July 2006 (3.14%) While Core PCE Prices YoY Still Stuck At 1.6%

  1. Market stalled around SPX 2670 today. Decent 30y auction, someone out there isn’t expecting hyperinflation 😉
    The drums of Phony War are beating. “Hey Vlad, it’s Donny. Move your planes, we’re bombing tonight.”


  2. A very low volume day in equities – some large dumps around 3.45 and of course into the close, when you might expect the larger punters to be moving. The SPX 2670 resistance level survives, at least for now.


  3. In the last few minutes of trading, all the banks were sold. Ignore the after-hours shenanigans and look at the surge in volume as price dipped for WFC and JPM at the end of the day.

    That’s usually the big money moving into the close – perhaps a verdict on what to expect tomorrow. JPM, C, and especially WFC were all sold hard into the close. Remember that the trend in the yield curve is no longer the banker’s friend, and that mortgage originations, including refis (highlighted here), have crashed of late. Add the fact that they are now paying higher levels of interest on savings and it’s not a pretty picture.

    The XLF failed to break through firm resistance around 28.00. There is a decent short set-up here in SPY(267), IWM(155) and XLF(28) for those able to tolerate a defined level of risk.


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