The great fear of The Federal Reserve raising their target rate is a popping of the alleged stock market bubble.
But one technical analysis tool, the Hindenburg Omen, is showing no signs of a bubble burst. The theory is largely based on Norman G. Fosback’s High Low Logic Index (HLLI). The value of the HLLI is the lesser of the NYSE new highs or new lows divided by the number of NYSE issues traded, smoothed by an appropriate exponential moving average. The theory itself was promoted by Jim Miekka.
The stock market still has momentum.
And the NYA index remains with the boundaries of the Volatility Based Envelope.
Yet Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) Ratio is showing a rather rich pricing of equities of 33.28.
So it appears that any bubble is actually tiny … until it pops.