What kind of bear is best? The kind that doesn’t happen!
But alas, the Goldman Sach Bull/Bear index is signalling a possible bear market.
“Low unemployment … and strong growth momentum at such an advanced stage in the economic cycle would normally already be associated with higher wages and, consequently, higher inflation and tighter monetary policy,” Goldman Sachs strategists said.
But “it is because of the lack of inflation that some of these variables can appear stretched without ringing alarm bells for equity investors. Put another way, it is very unlikely that without core inflation rising much, policy rates will rise sufficiently in the US or elsewhere to invert yield curves and/or force a recession in the near future,” the strategists said.
It doesn’t mean the bull market will end soon. But after a 9 1/2-year rally where the S&P 500 rose 19 percent annually, investors should be prepared for lower returns in coming years.