One day it looks like China and the US are making progress in trade talks, the next day there is no progress. Just like Brexit — on one day, off another. Then there is the Federal Reserve: will they continue raising their target rate and unwinding their balance sheet? Will the Democrats controlled House try to impeach Trump for putting ketchup on his steaks? And “The Wall.” Same old, same old. So many uncertainities.
Hence it is not a surprise that the US Treasury yield and US Dollar Swaps curve remain “kinked”. That is, inverted in the short-end of the respective curves.
It is difficult to keep one’s head on straight with all the uncertainties in the global markets.