US Economy Growing Above Long-run Trend Without Sustained Inflation (As Gov’t Measures Inflation)

The good news? The US economy is growing above the long-run trend. But without sustained inflation.

economicacti.png

At the last reading Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) growth was only 1.88%. Compare that to home prices growing at 4.7% YoY (CS) and FHFA’s Purchase Only YoY at 5.76%.

infre

Zillow’s rent index for all homes YoY is only 0.485, well below The Fed Funds Target rate and Core PCE growth. And The Fed Funds Target rate is above Core PCE growth.

Here is a closer look at the past year. Rising Fed Funds Target rate, stable inflation (Core PCE YoY), decling house price growth and continued balance sheet undwinding.

lastyear

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