The initial jobless claims for March beat expectations and is at the lowest level since 1969. Coupled with wage growth hitting 3.5% YoY (the highest since 2010), it appears that the Phillips Curve has resurfaced.
The Phillips Curve is the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth.
The Phillips Curve has been MIA (missing in action) for a long time, but has resurfaced in the form of initial jobless claims and wage growth. While Core Inflation YoY is a tepid 1.79%, wage growth is climbing to almost 3.5% YoY.
If you believe the Taylor Rule (Mankiw specification), The Fed should continue to raise its target rate.
Wage growth at around 2x core inflation? Over, under, sideways, down.