Don’t Panic! Mortgage Purchase And Refi Applications Drop 5% and 3.5% Despite Plunging Mortgage Rates (Seasonal Effect)

Don’t panic. It is June. Mortgage purchase applications typically peak in May and it is generally downhill from there until the beginning of January.

Mortgage purchase applications dropped 5% for the week ending June 14. Mortgage refi applications dropped 3.5%.

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Mortgage purchases applications have been trending down since 2007 until 2015 when they began rising again. Note that mortgage originations with FICO scores below 620 also plunged after 2007.

mbaplt

Mortgage purchase applications rose after the first of the year with declining mortgage rates, but that happens every year (even when rates rise!). But mortgage purchase application are remaining strong relative to previous years, likely due to declining mortgage rates.

mbapseasonal

Mortgage refi applications declined 3.5% WoW as mortgage rates were steady. But we are not seeing the surge in refi applications with a large decline in mortgage rates since the pool of eligible refi applications has shrunk.

refiseson

So, don’t panic! The Fed is likely going to cut their target rate again in July.

wirpjune

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