To be sure, the Citi Economic Surprise Index – Global has been in negative territory since the beginning of 2018, the longest stretch of negative readings since 2014. But there were negative patches prior to 2017 before the twin bursts of positive readings.
On the other hand, the Citi Macro Risk Index is actually declining.
And the VIX, TYVIX and MOVE indices are tame.
I could see Powell pushing for rate cuts if the Macro Risk index was at 2015 levels, but lower than average macro risk?
The Powell Scowl.