What if the COVID-19 infection slows to a halt and the state governments shut down for no reason?
Here is a chart of US COVID-19 hospitalizations in 2020 compared to previous influenza. Oddly, COVID-19 looks like the 2017-18 flu season that burned out.
To be sure, the US has suffered dramatic temporary job losses with U-6 underemployment rate of near 22.6% so far, most due to state government shutdowns.
It seems that New Jersey and Maryland (and Wisconsin??) are the leaders in flu activity.
There will be a big difference in Federal reactions to the COVID-19 if that it is a short-term pandemic or a long-term one.