There is an interesting phenomenon with the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y). At least since President Jimmy Carter, a recession has signaled a changed in the Presidency: Carter to Reagan, GHW Bush to Clinton, GW Bush to Obama and now … Trump to Joe Biden?
Another interesting phenomenon is the 10Y-2Y yield curve slope goes negative several months before a recession starts then climbs suddenly. Like now.
So if the US Treasury yield curve has predictive power, Joe Biden will win the election in November.