The Dow (DJIA) is down over 400 points of 11:45am EST. The S&P 500 index is also down. The VIX is up.
As The Fed continues to unwind its balance sheet, the SMART Money Flow Index is likely to keep deflating.
It looks like The Fed is sticking to its unwinding plans for their balance sheet, as are global central banks.
Since the beginning of the QE unwind — or “balance sheet normalization,” as the Fed calls it — in October 2017, the Fed has now shed $364 billion.
Of course, The Fed still have a long way to go to unwind its $4 trillion balance sheet. But The Fed is, at the same time, raising its target rate (although through confusing messaging).
The S&P 500 index and the NAREIT All Equity (Real Estate Investment Trust) indices are soaring along nicely with The Fed’s balance sheet expansion (aka, low interest rates), but are experiencing rather dramatic volatiity in the face of a shrinking balance sheet and rising Fed target rate.
And yes, volatility is increasing with Fed unwind and target rate increases.
SMART Money Flow Index? The decline coincides with The Fed’s unwinding on its Treasury positions.
Bubble you ask? Instead of “bubble” or “collapse,” the Fed uses “valuation pressures” and “broad adjustment in prices.”
To quote the late, great Isaac Hayes from Reindeer Games, “There are monsters in the gelatin!!”
The Dow is falling again. This time on the less-than-awesome jobs report. 155k jobs added versus the expected 198k jobs added.
Resulting in a decline to the Dow.
Yesterday, the Dow sell-off eased after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve is considering breaking with its current approach of steady interest rate hikes, favoring a wait-and-see approach. That was relief to investors worried that the Fed might raise interest rates too fast, which could choke off economic growth.
And the the University of Michigan Buying Conditions for Houses fell to it lowest level since December 2008. Although the might be Michigan getting destroyed by Ohio State 62-39.
In other words, The Fed is signalling “Hard to starboard!!!”
As of 11am EST, global equity markets are a sea of red.
The Dow is down 600 points (2.4%) while the EU is down around 3%.
After the big sell-off on Tuesday, we often see a rally the next day. But not today. It is a continuation of the trade tensions between the US, China and other trading partners.
And nervous investors are pulling out of equites and jumping into the safe zone (sovereign debt) pushing prices up and yields down.
Even commodities are taking a beating as well … except gold.
Calling The Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBOC!
The Dow crashed 800 points today, most after noon.
Which is it? The fear that the Trump-Xie tariff truce is a big nothing burger? Or that NY Fed President came out after noon saying that inflation and jobs look good and isn’t worried that markets have dialed back ’19 hikes? Or both?
My bet is on Williams’ announcement of economic optimism and the likelihood of further rate hikes.
And the Treasury 10Y-2Y curve flattened further to 10 BPS.
And the 90-day Treasury bill yield keeps on smokin!
Is Jerry Gergich running The Federal Reserve?
Ted Day! The Ted spread (3m Treasury yield- 3m LIBOR) is rising … again.
The optimism that drove gains for riskier assets appears to be quickly dissipating as investors scramble to figure out exactly what, if anything, was agreed between the U.S. and China on trade at the weekend. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, dialed back expectations and added qualifiers when asked about the outcome of talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has said nothing about the commitment to remove car tariffs flagged by the U.S., nor did its statement mention the 90-day timeline for talks the Americans have specified.
In the Treasury market, all eyes remain on the yield curve after three-year yields climbed above those of their five-year peers on Monday, potentially foreshadowing the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. The more closely watched part of the curve — the gap between two-year and 10-year yields — remains upwardly sloped.
Yes, but flattening like a pancake.
Or getting dunked in cold water like Ted.
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) has been rising since The Federal Reserve began raising their target rate back in late 2015 and has accelerated as The Fed began rapidly raising its target rate after Donald Trump’s election as President.
LIBOR 1 month is following a “jump process” where is surges or jumps periodically ahead of The Fed’s rate hike announcement. But the NY Fed’s SOFR index tracks the Fed’s target rate
As closer look since SOFR was introduced.
So, the New York Fed’s SOFR index takes out the front-running of The Fed’s rate increases.
Oops! LIBOR spikes again … ahead of The Fed’s rate hike.
The Fed’s not that innocent.
It is definitely October Country!
First, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices declined to 1.78% YoY pulling away the Fed’s desired 2% core inflation rate.
And on the housing front, US Pending Home Sales fell 4.6% YoY in October, making it the 10th decline in 11 months.
Yes, it is truly the October Country, a dark feast of wonder and horror. Without the wonder.
The Smart Money Flow Index, measuring the movement of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the last hour, has just declined AGAIN.
The Smart Money Flow Index, like the DJIA, has been around for decades. But it has just fallen to the lowet level since 1995.
Is the asset bubble starting to burst? Or is it just one lone indicator getting sick?
Its near the end of November and S&P/CoreLogic just released their US home price indices for September. The good news (for some)? Home prices rose 5.15% YoY. The bad news? Home price growth continues to slow. And home price growth continues to slow along with The Fed’s Balance Sheet.
Please note the YoY rise in home prices with the surge in the Fed Balance Sheet known as QE3. The rapid growth ceased once The Fed declared an end to QE3.
The biggest gainer again is Las Vegas a6 13.5% YoY. The slowest gainer in New York City at 2.6% YoY. The second slowest growth rate is in Washington DC followed by Chicago. Of course, New York, Washington DC and Chicago love their high tax rates.
Viva Las Vegas!