Livin’ On A Prayer: Average US Household Net Worth Is A Staggering $692,100 As Of 2016! (Median Only $97,300)

As 1980’s big-hair, New Jersey band Bon Jovi sang, US households are “Living on a Prayer.” Or The Federal Reserve-created massive asset bubble.

As of 2016, the mean net worth of US households was a whopping $692,000! And the median is $97,300.

Quite a disparity.

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Of course, The Federal Reserves zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) helped created massive asset bubbles that have helped households to historic high net worths.

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Housing is one of the recipients of The Fed’s quantitative distortion (QD).

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One indicator? Home prices are still growing almost twice as fast as average hourly earnings.

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These are no “Tiny Bubbles”.

Gold anyone?

But YUGE bubbles. Hence, American households are living on a prayer that the massive bubbles don’t burst.

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On a side note, I used to live in Rumson NJ and Jon Bon Jovi used to run by my house on the weekends (sans the big hair).

 

Divergence! Hong Kong’s HIBOR/LIBOR Spread Largest Since Financial Crisis While PBOC’s Balance Sheet Diverges From US Fed’s (China Default Crisis?)

There is considerable divergence between China and the US in terms of financial condition. The trade disagreement between China and the US comes to mind.

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First, there is considerable divergence between Hong Kong’s 1-month interbank lending rate, HIBOR, and the US 1-month interbank lending rate LIBOR. In fact, the divergence is the greatest since the financiak crisis. For the moment, the US Fed is engaged in quantitative tightening (QT) while China is frantically going the opposite direction.

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Second, Central bank balance-sheet divergence is reducing the impact of China’s government-induced liquidity injections, contributing to an increase in corporate defaults. Since Fed run-off began in October 2017, the impact of People’s Bank of China (PBOC) balance-sheet expansion has diminished considerably, as the FX-adjusted effect of last year’s 1 trillion yuan in central bank stimulus resulted in a $160 billion contraction when converted into U.S. dollars. Total assets at China’s central bank rose 2.6% to a record 37.2 trillion yuan in 2018. Yet, when expressed in dollars, the PBoC’s balance sheet fell by 2.9% to $5.4 trillion.

Chinese onshore defaults rose to a record $16.5 billion in 2018, and are up $1.4 billion year-to-date. China offshore defaults rose to $3.3 billion in 2018, and are up another $275 million in 2019.

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The Dow is up over 200 points on a deal preventing a US government shutdown. Democrats agreed to build a wall between the US and Mexico … 55 miles of the 2,000 mile US-Mexico border. As if drug traffickers (and cartels), human traffickers and gangs like MS-13  can’t figure out how to bypass the 55 miles of additional walls. 

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(Un)Willing! Bank Willingness To Lend To Consumers Drops To Zero (Recession Alert!)

It seem s that banks willingness to lend to consumers hass fallen. Perhaps it should be an index of “Willing.”

Bank willingness to lend to consumers, a prime driver of Federal Reserve monetary policy, typically slumps to zero before a recession.

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Yes, as The Fed continues to unwind its balance sheet, bank willingness to lend to consumers is melting.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) looks at the bank willingness to lend numbers.

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Goin’ Down! Fed Continues Balance Sheet Shrinking Of $14.2 Billion (Unwind Reaches $434 Billion, Remains on “Autopilot”)

As Bruce Springsteen famously mumbled, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is “Goin’ Down.”

As of Feburary 6, 2016, The Federal Reserve of New York further shrank The Fed’s Balance Sheet by $14.2 billion.

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This week it was $11.665 billion of US Treasury Notes and Bonds and $2,525 billion of US Floating Rate Notes. For a grand total of $14.2 billion reduction in liquidity.

Now The Fed has unwound $434 billion of its prodigious balance sheet.

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While other central banks filling their punch bowls ever further.

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So, The Fed is continuing its draining of the monetary punch bowl on autopilot.

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Gold Rewards Bulls in January as Fed’s Message Wounds Dollar (Gold Vol Remains Subdued)

The Federal Reserve’s “maybe we will, maybe we won’t” regarding further shrinking of its balance sheet coupled with keeping its target rate at 2.50% was celebrated by equity investors … and gold investors (including SPDR Gold Shares).

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(Bloomberg) — Gold is poised to close out January with a fourth straight monthly gain after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s done raising interest rates for a while, hurting the dollar, and as investors sought a haven against slowing growth and U.S.-China trade disputes.

Spot bullion traded at $1,321.89 an ounce at 10:33 a.m. in London after hitting $1,323.43 on Wednesday, the highest level since May, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The precious metal is up about 3 percent this month, while the greenback’s decline in January is the most in a year.

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Gold volatility remains subdued.

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And yes, Powell wounded the dollar.

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Yes, The Fed benefitted equity and gold investors while wounding the US Dollar.

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For excellent gold charts and analysis, see Jesse’s Cafe Americain site!

Fed Balance Sheet Fracas Highlights Confusion Over Market Impact (Dazed And Confused? Or Communications Breakdown?)

Are financial markets “dazed and confused” by The Fed’s activities? Or is there a “communications breakdown?” Or are we “over, under, sideways, down” in terms of The Fed and asset bubbles?

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street has become obsessed with the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet runoff, as investors debate why it’s suddenly roiling markets more than a year after it began.

There’s been no shortage of industry veterans sounding the balance-sheet alarm in recent weeks. . Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller has called it a “double-barreled blitz” that coDoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach says the unwind, interest-rate policy and guidance on where the two are headed have resulted in the equivalent of 15 implied tightenings. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller has called it a “double-barreled blitz” that could lead to a major policy error. And Guggenheim Partners Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd has expressed concerns that liquidity constraints could give way to systemic risk.

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Others say not so fast. Strategist at Barclays, Royal Bank of Canada and Wrightson ICAP have suggested the unwind’s link to stocks is weak, at best. Still, the S&P 500 Index plunged more than 3 percent in the hours following last month’s Fed meeting after Chairman Jerome Powell said the rundown was on “automatic pilot,” forcing policy makers to re-craft their message on the fly. And U.S. stocks spiked higher Friday amid reports that the Fed is weighing ending the reductions sooner than previously expected.

The extent to which officials are ready to change tack should become clearer Wednesday following the Federal Open Market Committee’s first meeting of the year. A survey of economists ahead of this week’s decision indicates that most don’t expect the central bank to slow or stop the balance sheet run-off this year, while the median forecast for interest-rate hikes is two in 2019. Regardless of what officials signal, though, Wall Street is likely to remain on edge as it comes to terms with what the balance-sheet unwind actually means for markets.

How did we get here?
The Fed’s unprecedented quantitative-easing programs in the aftermath of the financial crisis pumped trillions of dollars into the banking system. It bought bonds from banks and paid for them by crediting their reserves. Now, with the economy on firmer ground, the Fed wants to siphon off that extraordinary liquidity to contain the potential inflationary effects, prevent asset-price bubbles, and replenish its ammunition to fight the next downturn. The central bank has been letting Treasuries and mortgage bonds on its balance sheet roll off, or mature rather than replacing them, since October 2017. The unwind has gradually accelerated to its current pace of a maximum $50 billion a month.

By contrast, the market frenzy over the balance sheet erupted just weeks ago — a disconnect that raises some eyebrows, particularly among fixed-income practitioners. Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall wrote that “the Fed’s portfolio runoff is a sideshow” for equities, and RBC’s Michael Cloherty has described the impact as “wildly exaggerated.” That said, most agree that more clarity on the process surrounding the Fed’s unprecedented policy maneuver could help.

“The Fed has never done a two-variable experiment at the same time as they’re tightening policy,” said Lisa Hornby, a U.S. fixed-income portfolio manager at Schroder Investment Management. “The market has been scared by the fact that it’s a reversal of the policies that have been happening for years that have helped all risk assets.”

Where is the unwind being most directly felt?
Money markets. The Fed’s crisis-era bond investments created vast excess bank reserves. Post-crisis rules enacted to curb risk-taking have prompted banks to use much of those reserves to meet the more stringent requirements. As the balance-sheet unwind slowly drains liquidity from the financial system, some in the market are suggesting bank reserves are once again poised to become scarce, forcing banks to tap additional funding. Combined with a surge in Treasury-bill issuance — in and of itself partly driven by the government’s need to replace the Fed as a regular buyer — that’s helped push key money-market rates higher, especially in the market for repurchase agreements.

“Even though the Fed might be holding rates at 2.40 percent, the clearing rate for repo is much higher than that and I think that’s a result of this quantitative tightening and balance-sheet unwind,” said Bret Barker, a fixed-income portfolio manager at TCW Group in Los Angeles.

What about the impact on riskier assets?
That’s more complicated. The Fed’s purchases suppressed yields on Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities, driving investors into higher-yielding assets such as equities and corporate debt. Narrowing credit spreads enabled a record amount of corporate borrowing, which was used in part to buy back shares. Now, as the Fed normalizes policy, some of the tailwinds are reversing. Yields on Treasury bills from one- to six-months have risen to roughly 2.3 to 2.5 percent, more than the 2.1 percent dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index. Some say the additional tightening impact of the balance-sheet unwind may make credit conditions too restrictive, particularly for over-levered companies, and push the economy into recession.

“A lot of it is sentiment more than the fundamentals,” said Sebastien Page, head of global multi-asset strategy at T. Rowe Price in Baltimore. The markets have “gone through massive liquidity injections and the building up of those balance sheets. So what investors are worried about is the change in direction, so you go from rates going down and liquidity going up, to rates going up and liquidity going down.”

Where does the balance sheet unwind go from here?
It’s fair to say no one — not even the Fed chairman — can say with certainty what the balance sheet will look like in a year’s time. The most recent New York Fed survey shows primary dealers expect it to stabilize at about $3.5 trillion, which at the current rundown rate implies an end to the unwind in early 2020, according to analysis from ABN Amro Bank. Just three weeks ago, Powell said the future balance sheet “will be substantially smaller than it is now,’’ and encountered yet another wobble in stocks. More recent public statements from central-bank officials suggest policy makers are considering stopping the runoff sooner rather than later.

Another point of contention is whether the portfolio will still include mortgage-backed bonds. Nomura’s head of Americas fixed-income strategy George Goncalves expects a “full roll-off of the legacy MBS book but also a shift to a short U.S. Treasury duration portfolio.”

Amid all this uncertainty, a couple of things about the balance sheet are clear. Markets will have to accept that — at least for the remainder of this economic cycle — the days of maximum policy accommodation are over. In the meantime, will have to be wary of drawing attention to the autopilot and take full control of the market narrative.(Updates to add result of economists survey.

Here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell demonstrating his toxic masculinity by singing “I’m a man.’

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US Initial Jobless Claims Hits Lowest Level In 50 Years (Since ’69), But Money Velocity Remains Poor Since Financial Crisis

The good news? US initial jobless claims chimed in at 199k, the lowest since 1969.

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Beating the expectation of 218k jobless claims.

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The bad news? Despite the excellent employment news, M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) still has not recovered from The Great Recession and global financial crisis.

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The Clinton/Gteenspan “miracle” was a combination of reducing M2 Money stock growth to near zero while GDP boomed after the 1990 recession. Unfortunately, such a miracle is unlikely in to today’s over-stimulated low-interest rate world.

To use a Clue analogy, Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen/Powell did it with a printing press on Wall Street. Perhaps Fed Chair Jerome Powell is REALLY Colonel Mustard!!

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China’s Central Bank Now Has World’s Largest Balance Sheet As $1.1 TRILLION Is Injected Into Markets Via Repos (Curves Kinked)

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank Of China, now has the world’s largest balance sheet topping even the European Central Bank (ECB). Only The Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet … for now.

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The PBOC has injected almost $1.1 trillion in the market over the past two days.

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One of the impacts of the balance sheet expansion and repo injections is a reduction in the volatiilty of Chinese stocks. Better known as “numbing volatility.”

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On the sovereign side, China’s yield and swaps curves are kinked.

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Central bank interfernce in markets seem to be never ending.

Greet the 1970s with the new victories of revolution and production, 1970. From a private collection.

US Treasury Yield, Swaps And 1-Month LIBOR Curves Remain Kinked (All Day And All The Night)

Global uncertainites abound. And with them, the US TReasury yield curve, the US Dollar Swaps curve, and the 1-month LIBOR curves are all kinked.

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These curves are kinked all day and all the night.

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10-Year US Treasury Yield In “Death Cross” Pattern (Yields Falling With Fed Unwind)

In a positive technical sign for bond bulls, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has formed a so-called death cross pattern. This occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day counterpart. While many traders are skeptical of its relevance, others argue it presages further weakness in the benchmark yield. “It should indicate long-term yields will continue to head lower as we move through the first quarter,” wrote Miller Tabak + Co. equity strategist Matt Maley, in a note to clients.

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As The Fed continues to unwind its balance sheet, 10-year Treasury yields, on average, have been falling (not rising).

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