Where Will Mortgage Rates Be In Three Years? Hint: Right Where They Are Now Because The Fed Isn’t Going Anywhere Until 2023

One question that is often asked if “Where Will Mortgage Rates Be In Three Years?”

Take a look at Freddie Mac’s 30Y mortgage survey rate (white line) and M2 Money Velocity (green line). And then overlay The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, pushing down the benchmark 10Y Treasury Note yield. It is clear that mortgage rates aren’t going up anytime soon.

Look at home price growth and The Fed’s balance sheet. As the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet in 2018 and then the Case-Shiller home price index growth rate started falling … then recovered as The Fed threw more gas on the fire.

Gold? There is also a positive relation to The Fed’s balance sheet.

The Fed isn’t going until at least 2023. So, The Fed is here to stay, distorting markets and prices.

Rock and roll, hoochie koo.