US GDP Jumps To 3.0% In Second Quarter (Trade At Whopping 4.99%!)

The Bureau of Econ Analysis reported that the first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at an unexpectedly brisk 3.0%, a complete reversal of the -0.5% decline in Q1.

Personal Consumption added 0.98% to the bottom line GDP, up from 0.31% in Q1.

Fixed Investment came at 0.08%, a big drop from the 1.31%, and perhaps the only concerning point in today’s report: was there really no major data center investments in the second quarter… and if so what are the hyperscalers doing?

The change in private inventories was a big drop, printing at -3.17% in the first estimate, up from 2.59% in the first quarter, and an expected reversal as retailers unloaded all that inventory they piled up ahead of tariffs.

Trade or net exports (exports less imports), came at a whopping 4.99% – the biggest addition to the bottom line GDP number – as imports collapsed and added 5.18% to GDP, a stark reversal to the -4.66% contraction in Q1.

Finally, government added just 0.08% to GDP, a reversal of the 0.10% subtraction in Q1.

So, the BEA reported 3.0% real GDP growth, `the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now latest estimate was 2.9 percent. Pretty close!