March Existing Home Sales MEDIAN PRICE Falls -6.2%YoY, Worst March Since 2009 (Rent Growth Slowing To 1.8% YoY)

Median price for new single family homes fell to $387,400 in April, dropping 6.2% y/y to its lowest level since July 2021.

Worst March for existing home sales since 2009.

Rents? Lowest since pre-pandemic.

Is Rosa DeLauro actually Moe Howard with purple hair??

US Debt To GDP Ratio At 1.22 (Nothing Has Been The Same Since 2020 Covid Outbreak)

It used to be that a debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio above 1.0 would be disastrous. Yet, the US Debt-to-GDP ratio rises during and after most recessions. Why? The old Keynesian model called for increased government spending and debt to pull the country out of a recession. But the Keynesian model called for debt to be repaind after the recession ended. But after most recessions, the Federal government keeps spending and borrowing. Following the Covid outbreak of 2020, the US debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 1.0 and has remained fairly constant since.

As of today, the US Federal debt load is $39.204 trillion while GDP is $32.090 trillion resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 1.22.

The leader in the debt-to-GDP race is … Sudan! Followed by Japan and Singapore.

As lowest debt-to-GDP ratio nations are energy-rich Brunei (2.3%) and Kuwait (3%).

Housing Permits Fall To 7 Month Low, Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, 2Y Treasury Yield Jumps 10 BPS (Ill Gov JB Pritzker Approves Psychedelic Gerrymandered Map)

March housing starts hit their highest level since December 2024 but permits fell sharply to a seven-month low.

Yesterday’s Fed meeting left interest rates unchanged but 2y Treasury yield jumped 10bps to 3.94%.

Here is the Illinois Congressional map that Ill Governor JB Pritzker approved. Almost looks like a psychedelic map of R Crumb.

It almost looks like artist R Crumb drew the Congressional map of Illinois.

Mortgage Employment Headcount Lowest Since Housing Bubble Of 2005 As Case-Shiller National Home Price Index UP 0.29% In February (Denver Leads In Price Declines Beating Tampa)

Home values in Denver are falling faster than any other major metro area tracked by a key index, earning the Mile High City a dubious distinction as the weakest housing market in the nation.

More than half of major U.S. metropolitan areas posted year-over-year home price declines in February, with Denver (-2.2%) displacing Tampa (-2.1%) as the weakest market, according to data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.

Los Angeles (-0.8%) and Washington, DC (-0.1%) also joined the list of markets with falling home values, signaling weakness that expanding out of the long-suffering Sunbelt region.

kkk


Mortgage employee headcount has fallen to lowest level since the housing bubble and mortgage crisis of 2005-2008.

40% More Home Sellers Than Buyers (Credit Quality Of Mortgages Deteriorating)

For all the cheerleaders for housing markets, I hate to be the contrast voice.

Per Redfin, home sellers outnumbered buyers by 43.1% in March…up from 28.0% a year ago but shy of December’s 45.2%, which was largest gap on record.

This imbalance is occuring as credit quality is deteriorating.

What Happened To The “Shut Down Fannie And Freddie” Movement? (Both Fannie And Freddie Are GROWING Their Retained Portfolios)

I spoke at the American Action Forum in Washington DC on the future of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Speaking with me was Laurie Goodman from The Urban Institute. Laurie loves Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and argued passionately against shutting them down. I argued to shrink their retained portfolios to zero and privatize them.

When Trump was elected President for the second time and the House of Representatives was controlled by Republicans, there was hope that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be privatized. But alas, it was not to be.

In fact, the retained portfolios for Fannie Mae (left) and Freddie Mae (right) are increasing, not decreasing.

Here is my House of Representatives testimony on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

We are going in the wrong direction under GSE regulator Bill Pulte.

US Treasury Yield Curve Upward Sloping As Iran Conflict Continues (Strait Of Hormuz Effectively Closed)

Trump’s threats of bombing Iran back to the stone age continues. But the impact on Treasury yields is interesting. As the US economy continues to grow, the US Treasury curve takes on the familiar upward slope. With rising long rates. Particularly when compared to the negative humped yield curve of a year ago.

The Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for Middle East crude oil delivery to the rest of the world, has witnessed vessel crossings grinding to a near halt.

RIP Don Hansen of Hansen Surfboards.

Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era Levels For The Moment

Since the attack on Iran by Israelis and US forces, crude oil and gasoline prices have soared … back to Obama and Bidem era levels.

How about the impact of the Arctic cold blasts the northern states have received? You can see the spike in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price

Home Prices Rise 0.9% YoY Despite Lower Mortgage Rates (Blue City Mean Reversion, New York 4.9% YoY Gain, Chicago 4.6% YoY, Cleveland 3.6% YoY While Tampa -2.5%)

We are seeing mean reversion in home prices in red cities and blue cities.

The price of homes in America’s to 20 cities rose just 0.16% MoM in January (the lowest MoM rise since August and well below the 0.35% MoM expected.

Source: Bloomberg

Home prices rose 0.9% YoY as mortgage rates have fallen. Home prices are still too high.

New York leads with a 4.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 4.6% and Cleveland at 3.6%, while Tampa fell 2.5%…

Don’t be confused. This isn’t leftists running to blue cities. It is mean reversion. The prior fleeing blue cities to red cities created a mean reversion effect where red cities home prices rose too fast and blue cities fell too fast.

Little Rock?