Home prices exploded under Biden and Covid Federal spending. Making housing unaffordable for millions. Now the turnover rates for homes is at its lowesst rate in decades.
Existing homes are now more expensive than new homes.
Florida housing is getting gut-punched from Naples to Punta Gorda.
Yikes! Median age of first time homebuyers is 40.
Fortunately, Joe Biden is out of office. But Chuck Schumer may make a comeback and restart the insane Covid-era spending. Schumer, the penultimate knucklehead in Congress, approved Ketanji Brown Jackson to sit on the Supreme Court of the USA.
Household formation is slowing. Partly due to immigration slowing, partly due to increased cost on living (primarily due to Biden-era Federal spending).
But if Democrats win Congress, they will undoubtedly go for open borders … again.
Home prices are tanking in bubble-ish metro areas like Florida, California and Austin Texas. Oddly, I have lived in Austin, San Francisco and Chico CA. All before that were bubble magnates.
Silver ETF trading volume is exploding: Trading volume in the largest silver-backed ETF, $SLV, hit a record $40 billion on Monday.
This marks the highest turnover among any other asset and is 15 TIMES its average daily volume.
This also TRIPLES the previous peak seen in 2011.
By comparison, the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, traded $25 billion, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, $17 billion, while Nvidia, $NVDA, and Tesla, $TSLA, each traded $16 billion.
Furthermore, the 2x leverage long-silver futures ETF, $AGQ, posted $8 billion in volume yesterday. The largest Gold ETF, $GLD, also saw massive turnover of $13 billion, but $27 BILLION lower than $SLV. Silver’s recent moves are truly unprecedented.
Keep on printing money. It seems that home price growth requires The Fed to keep printing money.
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (“November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.4% annual gain for November, in line with the previous month.
Real home values declined as consumer inflation (2.7%) outpaced the National Index gain (1.4%) by 1.3 percentage points.
Regional divergence persisted: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led by Chicago (+5.7%) and New York (+5.0%) posted gains, while Sun Belt cities including Tampa (–3.9%), Phoenix (–1.4%), Dallas (–1.4%), and Miami (–1.0%) saw declines. … “Regional patterns continue to illustrate a stark divergence. Chicago leads all cities for a second consecutive month with a 5.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. These historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern markets have maintained respectable gains even as overall conditions cool. By contrast, Tampa home prices are 3.9% lower than a year ago – the steepest decline among the 20 cities, extending that market’s 13-month streak of annual drops. Other Sun Belt boomtowns remain under pressure as well: Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%) each continue to see year-over-year declines, a dramatic turnaround from their pandemic-era strength.
“Monthly price changes were mixed but leaned negative in November, underscoring persistent softness. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw prices decline from October (versus 16 declines in the previous month). Only a handful of markets – including Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, and Phoenix – eked out slight gains before seasonal adjustment. After accounting for typical seasonal slowing, the National Index inched up just 0.4% for the month, indicating that price momentum remains muted. … The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for November. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.0%, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, up from a 1.3% increase in the previous month. … The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a drop of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite Index fell 0.03%, while the 10-City Composite Index increased 0.1%.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4%, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.5%.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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