Victory! US Home Sales Have Best 2 Months In 12 Years As Hourly Earnings Growth Exceeds Home Price Growth

Victory! A slew of positive housing news two days before Thanksgiving Day.

First, new home sales rose 733K in October, continuing the best two months in 12 years. Second, home price growth rose a bit to 2.10% YoY for the 20 largest metro areas while hourly earnings growth is above 2.10% at 3.49% YoY.


(Bloomberg) — Buyers snapped up new U.S. homes over the past two months at the fastest pace in more than 12 years, adding to signs of sturdy housing demand amid lower prices and borrowing costs.


Single-family house sales ran at a 733,000 annualized pace in October, topping all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, following an upwardly revised 738,000 in September, government data showed Tuesday. Those were the two strongest readings since July 2007. The median sales price decreased 3.5% from a year earlier to $316,700.

And median price of new home sales continue to decline.


And on the Case-Shiller home price front, average hourly earnings growth in finally exceeding home price growth!


Happy Thanksgiving! And I wish Fed Chair Jerome Powell and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen a joyous day.


US Existing Home Sales Decline 2.2% MoM As Mortgage Rates Tick Upwards (Median EHS Prices Fall)

After watching NY Jets’ QB Sam Darnold’s disastrous game against the NE Patriots (he claims he saw ghosts!), the existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors is a moderate success!

US Existing Home Sales declined 2.2% MoM in September as mortgage rates rose slightly.


The median price for existing home sales fell as EHS inventory continued its seasonal decline.


Perhaps Sam Darnold should join the cast of Supernatural as a hunter instead of throwing 4 interceptions and a fumble.


Let’s hope Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield sees open receivers and not ghosts against the Patriots on Sunday!!

US Average Hourly Earnings (3 Mo Avg) Highest Since President GWBush, Home Price Growth Lowest Since 2012 (Housing Bubble Redux?)

Unlike the housing bubble and “The Big Short” years of 2005-2007, when home price growth was greater than average hourly earnings growth, we are now in the opposite situation: slowing 2% YoY home price growth and the highest average hourly earnings growth rate since 2008 and President George W. Bush.

Home price growth is slowing …

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As average hourly earnings growth rises to its highest level since 2008 and George “Dubya” Bush.


Using a different home price growth index (FHFA Purchase Only) and an average hourly earnings for the majority of Americans, you can see where home price growth exceeds average hourly earnings growth starting in 1998 and ending in 2006 (the “Big Short” bubble) and the QE3-induced home price bubble starting in 2012 to today.

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Between HUD’s National Homeownership Strategy of 1995 and The Fed’s quantitative easing (particularly QE3). the US Federal government is doing the “housing bubble dance.”