Category: GDP

Q3 US Real GDP Growth At 5% (So Much For The Iran “War” Slump)

According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now REAL time model, Q3 Real GDP is 5%.

The subcomponents of GDP growth are as follows:

So much for the doom and gloom of Trump’s tariff “war” or Trump’s Iran “war.” 5% Real GDP growth is outstanding!

And The Fed keeps on printing money (M2)! Keep on printin’!

The Q3 Real GDP report is so good, I feel like yodeling!

Real Home Price Growth Is Negative (Worse In China), Fed Money Printing (M2) Increasing, China’s Money Printing Increasing Even Faster Than US

US home prices are clearly unaffordable for younger households, given the dearth of true starter homes. As of Q1 2026, REAL US residential property prices fell -2.1% YoY.

China’s real residential property prices are declining even faster than the US.

The US Federal Reserve is printing money M2 at a 5.6% YoY pace. Slower than during the Covid outbreak, and slower than the decade prior to Covid.

China is printing money at a gutwrenching pace (10.5% YoY as of August 2019). Note that China has historically printed money faster than The Federal Reserve.

Global Central Banks are the Neegans of the global economy.

Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, the highest since May 2023, but … Fed printed M2 at 4.6% annually in March

The inflation numbers are out for April. Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually, higher than The Fed’s target rate of 2%.

To be fair, The Federal Reserve pumped up the money supply (M2) by 4.6% in March.

According to the BLS, gasoline prices rose 28.4% annually in April while shelter rose 3.3% annually.

Do the Federal Reserve dance!

40% More Home Sellers Than Buyers (Credit Quality Of Mortgages Deteriorating)

For all the cheerleaders for housing markets, I hate to be the contrast voice.

Per Redfin, home sellers outnumbered buyers by 43.1% in March…up from 28.0% a year ago but shy of December’s 45.2%, which was largest gap on record.

This imbalance is occuring as credit quality is deteriorating.

What Happened To The “Shut Down Fannie And Freddie” Movement? (Both Fannie And Freddie Are GROWING Their Retained Portfolios)

I spoke at the American Action Forum in Washington DC on the future of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Speaking with me was Laurie Goodman from The Urban Institute. Laurie loves Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and argued passionately against shutting them down. I argued to shrink their retained portfolios to zero and privatize them.

When Trump was elected President for the second time and the House of Representatives was controlled by Republicans, there was hope that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be privatized. But alas, it was not to be.

In fact, the retained portfolios for Fannie Mae (left) and Freddie Mae (right) are increasing, not decreasing.

Here is my House of Representatives testimony on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

We are going in the wrong direction under GSE regulator Bill Pulte.

Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era Levels For The Moment

Since the attack on Iran by Israelis and US forces, crude oil and gasoline prices have soared … back to Obama and Bidem era levels.

How about the impact of the Arctic cold blasts the northern states have received? You can see the spike in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price

Seller’s Market In Housing! There Are 630,000 More Home Sellers Than Buyers—the Biggest Gap on Record (50% More Sellers Than Buyers)

Nothing has been the same in the US housing market since the Covid outbreak of 2020. According to Redfin, there are nearly 50% more home sellers than buyers.

And the number of homebuyers has fallen to historic lows.

A good reason there are so few buyers is that home prices has soared after the Federal government’s spending spree after Covid.

Prayers for the soul of Noelia Castillo Ramos, murdered by the Spanish government. For being gangrape TWICE by immigrants then attempted suicide.

Mortgage Applications Decreased 10.5 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 5 Percent WoW)

Mortgage applications decreased 10.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 20, 2026.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 15 percent from the previous week and was 52 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Nothing has been the same since Covid outbreak in 2020 and the resulting Federal government spemding spree.

US New Home Sales Decline By Most In 13 Years In January (Home Prices Remain Too High After Covid Spending Spree)

Despite falling mortgage rates, analysts expected December’s drop in new home sales to accelerate in January… and accelerate they did… crashing a stunning 17.6% MoM (-2.7% MoM exp) – the biggest MoM drop since July 2013.

This huge MoM drop dragged sales down 11.3% YoY – the worst slide in three years.

Source: Bloomberg

This huge drop dragged the new home sales SAAR down to its lowest since 2022, catching down to existing and pending sales…

Inventories are up (Houses for sale in Jan. rose 0.4% m/m to 476,000), prices are down (Median down 6.8% YoY at $400k – lowest since 2024)…

…and remember these deals were signed in January – meaning this is not mortgage related (some suggesting weather impact – Northeast sales down 44.7% MoM, MidWest -33.9% MoM, but the scale is immense).

Moral of the story: US home prices are too high for millions of households to afford.