Hot, Hot, Hot! New Gauge of Inflation Expectations Has Bad News (Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations On The Rise And Above 8%)

US consumers are feeling that inflation is hot, hot, hot!

There is another Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 14th and everyone is interested in what The Fed will do. Or how much will The Fed raises rates?

Recent inflation numbers are still terrible (for the US, that is). But slowing, giving Fed officials reason to slow down the pace of rate increases.

But now the Cleveland Fed has introduced a new inflation measure: Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectation index. And unfortunately it shows that consumers expectations for inflation is actually rising rapidly over the past two weeks to over 8%.

I have stopped listening to the various Fed Presidents (like Collins, Bostic and Bullard) babbling about what The Fed will do like so many bobbleheads in a car. I like Fed Funds Futures data. And it is showing a rate increase at the December 14th meeting of 52 basis points (that is, 50 basis points will some investors betting on 75 basis points).

So, consumers think inflation is hotter than the CPI data indicates.