Housing Permits Fall To 7 Month Low, Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, 2Y Treasury Yield Jumps 10 BPS (Ill Gov JB Pritzker Approves Psychedelic Gerrymandered Map)

March housing starts hit their highest level since December 2024 but permits fell sharply to a seven-month low.

Yesterday’s Fed meeting left interest rates unchanged but 2y Treasury yield jumped 10bps to 3.94%.

Here is the Illinois Congressional map that Ill Governor JB Pritzker approved. Almost looks like a psychedelic map of R Crumb.

It almost looks like artist R Crumb drew the Congressional map of Illinois.

Mortgage Employment Headcount Lowest Since Housing Bubble Of 2005 As Case-Shiller National Home Price Index UP 0.29% In February (Denver Leads In Price Declines Beating Tampa)

Home values in Denver are falling faster than any other major metro area tracked by a key index, earning the Mile High City a dubious distinction as the weakest housing market in the nation.

More than half of major U.S. metropolitan areas posted year-over-year home price declines in February, with Denver (-2.2%) displacing Tampa (-2.1%) as the weakest market, according to data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.

Los Angeles (-0.8%) and Washington, DC (-0.1%) also joined the list of markets with falling home values, signaling weakness that expanding out of the long-suffering Sunbelt region.

kkk

Mortgage employee headcount has fallen to lowest level since the housing bubble and mortgage crisis of 2005-2008.

40% More Home Sellers Than Buyers (Credit Quality Of Mortgages Deteriorating)

For all the cheerleaders for housing markets, I hate to be the contrast voice.

Per Redfin, home sellers outnumbered buyers by 43.1% in March…up from 28.0% a year ago but shy of December’s 45.2%, which was largest gap on record.

This imbalance is occuring as credit quality is deteriorating.

What Happened To The “Shut Down Fannie And Freddie” Movement? (Both Fannie And Freddie Are GROWING Their Retained Portfolios)

I spoke at the American Action Forum in Washington DC on the future of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Speaking with me was Laurie Goodman from The Urban Institute. Laurie loves Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and argued passionately against shutting them down. I argued to shrink their retained portfolios to zero and privatize them.

When Trump was elected President for the second time and the House of Representatives was controlled by Republicans, there was hope that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be privatized. But alas, it was not to be.

In fact, the retained portfolios for Fannie Mae (left) and Freddie Mae (right) are increasing, not decreasing.

Here is my House of Representatives testimony on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

We are going in the wrong direction under GSE regulator Bill Pulte.

Seller’s Market In Housing! There Are 630,000 More Home Sellers Than Buyers—the Biggest Gap on Record (50% More Sellers Than Buyers)

Nothing has been the same in the US housing market since the Covid outbreak of 2020. According to Redfin, there are nearly 50% more home sellers than buyers.

And the number of homebuyers has fallen to historic lows.

A good reason there are so few buyers is that home prices has soared after the Federal government’s spending spree after Covid.

Prayers for the soul of Noelia Castillo Ramos, murdered by the Spanish government. For being gangrape TWICE by immigrants then attempted suicide.

Mortgage Applications Decreased 10.5 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 5 Percent WoW)

Mortgage applications decreased 10.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 20, 2026.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 15 percent from the previous week and was 52 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Nothing has been the same since Covid outbreak in 2020 and the resulting Federal government spemding spree.

US New Home Sales Decline By Most In 13 Years In January (Home Prices Remain Too High After Covid Spending Spree)

Despite falling mortgage rates, analysts expected December’s drop in new home sales to accelerate in January… and accelerate they did… crashing a stunning 17.6% MoM (-2.7% MoM exp) – the biggest MoM drop since July 2013.

This huge MoM drop dragged sales down 11.3% YoY – the worst slide in three years.

Source: Bloomberg

This huge drop dragged the new home sales SAAR down to its lowest since 2022, catching down to existing and pending sales…

Inventories are up (Houses for sale in Jan. rose 0.4% m/m to 476,000), prices are down (Median down 6.8% YoY at $400k – lowest since 2024)…

…and remember these deals were signed in January – meaning this is not mortgage related (some suggesting weather impact – Northeast sales down 44.7% MoM, MidWest -33.9% MoM, but the scale is immense).

Moral of the story: US home prices are too high for millions of households to afford.

US Pending Home Sales Rise 1.8% MoM In February, But The South Saw 2.7% MoM Increase (What I Like About The South)

What I like about the South.

US pending home sales bounced modestly in February (up 1.8% MoM vs -0.6% MoM exp and -10.% MoM prior).

Year-over-year home sales continue to decline (down 0.6% YoY).

Source: Bloomberg

Pending home sales in the South, the biggest home-selling region in the country, increased 2.7%.

They rose 4.6% in the Midwest and edged up in the West.

US Home Relistings Hit Record High (Delistings Soared In 2025 After Sellers Outnumbered Buyers)

Housing market woes continue. All the day and all the night.

Around 45,000 homes that were delisted in 2025 were back on the market in January – marking the highest relisting numbers since 2016 when Redfin began tracking.

Delistings soared in 2025 after sellers began to outnumber buyers, and decided to take their homes off the market to take another bite at the apple this spring. Overall delistings hit a record high of 112,788 in December, while relistings this year represented 3.6% of all homes on the market.

Supply gains have been concentrated in the South and West, particularly among homes priced under $500,000. While the Northeast and Midwest have seen some growth, they are still lagging behind the other regions.

As of February, active listings climbed by 7.9 percent year over year, reaching 914,860 homes across the nation for sale. A little more than 7 percent of those listings resulted in contract cancellations—down slightly from the same time in 2025.

An analysis of the country’s 50 largest markets showed sharp increases in inventory in Seattle, with a 38.5 percent hike, as well as Louisville, Kentucky, 27.3 percent higher, and San Jose, with nearly 25 percent more homes on the market.

On the other side, Hartford, Connecticut, experienced the deepest drop in inventory at over 82 percent, as well as Providence, Rhode Island, at 61.1 percent.

Overall, homes spent a median of 70 days on the market in February, four days longer than a year earlier.

Global Uncertainty Hits An ALL-TIME HIGH! Higher Than Covid, 2008 Financial Crisis, Dot-com Crash COMBINED

Global uncertainty hits an ALL-TIME HIGH.

Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED.

You know what that means!