Due to the ongoing government shutdown – now in its third day – the BLS did not release the September jobs report this morning forcing traders and the Fed to “fly blind.” Or blinder than usual. And with ADP reporting earlier this week that some 32,000 jobs had been lost in September, putting markets and economists on edge and the US economy on the verge of a labor recession, the lack of data could not have come at a worse time. Luckily, private sector alternatives to the BLS do exist and, in many cases, are far more accurate and certainly less politicized.
The latest Revelio Labs number (+60.1k) is very notable as it suggests that the labor picture is nowhere near as bad as ADP indicated. In fact, as shown in the chart below, in September the Revelio Labs data set showed the best monthly increase in jobs in 2025!
The Federal Reserve will do what they want and will likely ignore the good report from Revelio. Besides, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is at 3.8% for Q3.
Here is the GDP breakdown.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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