Goin’ Down! US GDP Nosedives To 0.5% On Bubbles And Bottlenecks

Goin’ down! GDP, that is.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19, down from 1.2 percent on October 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.9 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

US real GDP nosedived to 0.5% according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow real-time tracker.

Again, The Fed and Federal government pumped trillions of stimulus into an unprepared economy resulting in massive bottlenecks. So, we are getting declining GDP and rising inflation.

Yesterday’s industrial production dove leading to the 0.5% GDP figure. Today’s housing starts didn’t impact GDP in a meaningful way.

And she was.

US Housing Starts Drop 1.58% In September (Permits Drop 7.67%) As Interest Rate Increases And Inflation Loom

US housing starts slowed in September to at a -1.58% MoM rate. Permits dropped 7.67% MoM.

Now that interest rates are expected to rise … in late 2022, we may be a slowing in the housing market.

Here are the numbers.

The US Treasury 10Y-3M slope is rising as inflation rises (that inflation curve looks like the ARCTAN function from prepayment modeling!)

Time To Buy? Real 30Y Mortgage Rate At -2.21% As Real Home Price Growth At 14.34% YoY (UMich Home Buying Sentiment Improves To 75)

Wake up. Time to buy?

This is a time even unlike the disastrous housing bubble of the 2000s that led to the financial crisis and Great Recession. Even during the housing bubble years, we still had positive REAL mortgage rates: Bankrate 30Y Fixed rate – CPI YoY. But today we have even FASTER REAL home price growth and NEGATIVE mortgage rates!

And yes, REAL home price growth is 14.34% YoY while REAL hourly earnings growth is -0.79%.

The University of Michigan consumer survey came out today and buying conditions for housing improved to 75. Which means that more people were negative than positive due to skyrocketing home prices.

With negative 30Y mortgage rates and rising apartment rents, is it time to buy? Just remember what happened to Leon in Blade Runner.

Bank of Japan Stops Printing Money, Will The Fed Follow? (US Misery Index Above 10%, Housing Misery Rate At All-time High)

My Kuroda!

金融政策に限界があるとは考えておりません 
(I do not believe that there is a limit to the effect of monetary policy.)

Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, 13 April 2016

The Bank of Japan is one of the top three Quantitative Easing (QE) Monsters in terms of the absolute amount of assets it purchased. The Fed and the ECB round out the trio. The BoJ started QE over 20 years ago, and went hog wild under Abenomics, which became the economic religion of Japan in 2013. But the era of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ended in September 2020, and Abenomics is now finished.

What’s left of it is that the BoJ (and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda) now holds about half of the huge pile of the central government’s debt. With their target rate at -0.10% and a gargantuan balance sheet, what could go wrong?

But BOJ’s QE has ended. The BoJ’s overall assets stopped growing, and its holdings of government bonds have started to decline.

As of the BoJ’s balance sheet dated September 30, released on Thursday, total assets declined to a still monstrous ¥724 trillion ($6.4 trillion), below where it had been in May 2021.

But look at Japanese home prices with the growth of the BOJ’s balance sheet and general decline in mortgage rates. Like the USA, there was a balance sheet spike associated with Covid and a resulting spike in home prices.

The USA? We also saw a surge in home prices following The Fed’s monetary “stimulypto.”

But will The Fed follow BOJ’s lead and stop asset purchases? Not yet, anyway. It seems that The Fed can’t turn market forces loose and let interest rates rise.

Bear in my that the US Misery Index is above 10% (U-3 unemployment + inflation).

And if I define the US Misery Index as U-3 unemployment + home price growth, we can see we are at record misery rates. Miserable for households that don’t own a home or are trying to move to a higher housing price area).

What I like about The Fed’s monetary policies?? Nada.

Stimulypto! U.S. Rents Are Increasing at ‘Shocking’ Rates of More Than 11.5% (Newly-signed Leases Rose 17%)

So much for the transitory inflation that The Federal Reserve keeps spouting on about.

(Bloomberg) — The pace of rent increases is heating up in the U.S.

Rent data for the past two months show no sign yet of the usual seasonal dip at this time of year, following peaks early in the summer, when many lease renewals come due.

A Zillow Group Inc. index based on the mean of listed rents rose 11.5% in August from a year earlier, with some cities in Florida, Georgia and Washington state seeing increases of more than 25%. 

Since the start of the pandemic, the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment has soared 13.1% to $1,663, Zumper data show

But rent on newly-signed leases rose 17% from the previous tenant’s lease.

For the New York market, landlords are raising rent prices as much as 70% now that people are flooding back into the city as offices and entertainment venues open up. In July, the median asking rent in New York City surged to $3,000, compared with the pandemic low of $2,750 in January 2021, data from StreetEasy showed.

Of course, rent surge is not surprising given that home prices have surged since Covid given limited inventory and massive Fed stimulus.

Perhaps if The Fed and Federales (Federal government) start reducing their apocalyptic-level stimulus, THEN we will see inflation as transitory.

New York Fed Doubles Reverse Repo Counterparty Limit to $160b, Banks Immediately Respond By Parking $135.2b At The Fed

This will make Fed Chair Powell smile along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen!

(Bloomberg) — The Federal Open Market Committee directed the New York Fed’s Desk to increase the size of the counterparty limit for the overnight reverse repo facility, according to a statement.

Per-counterparty limit increased to $160b/day from $80b/day, with the change taking effect Sept. 23

“The increase in the per-counterparty limit from the current level of $80 billion per day helps ensure that the ON RRP facility continues to support effective policy implementation,” according to statement. “All other ON RRP operation parameters remain the same”

And banks didn’t wait long to park $135.2b overnight at The Fed.

When combined with the ongoing expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, we are seeing to see the expansion of the United States on Liquidity.

The Fed is providing a sea of liquidity. What are the banks afraid of?

Covid Blues! 1.6 Million Loans Remain In Forbearance With FHA/VA Leading (Fannie Mae Reports $7.2 Billion In Net Income In Q2 Report)

The Covid epidemic hit the single-family mortgage market hard in early 2020, leading mortgage lenders and servicers to offer FORBEARANCE to borrowers who were having trouble making their mortgage payments due to loss of hours or a loss of job.

Black Knight offers an excellent summary of the forbearance data.

The good news? Active forbearance plans are much lower today than at their peak after the Covid epidemic struck in early 2020 with active forbearance plans peaking in May 2020.

Forbearance plans are due to expire in

What is forbearance, you ask? Forbearance is when a mortgage servicer or lender allows a borrower to temporarily pay their mortgage at a lower payment or pause paying your mortgage. The borrower will have to pay the payment reduction or the paused payments back later.

Despite forbearance, Fannie Mae still reported $7.2 billion in net income in Q2 2021. Notice the difference between single-family SDQ and the SDQ rate without forbearance. Freddie Mac reported $3.7 billion in Q2 2021 net income.

Here is a look at Fannie Mae’s net income over the past year and SDQ rates.

Under the existing seller/servicer eligibility requirements, the Agency SDQ Rate is defined as 100 multiplied by (the UPB of mortgage loans 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae/Total UPB of mortgage loans serviced for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae). Beginning with the financial quarter ending Jun. 30, 2020, the Agency SDQ Rate will include an adjustment for mortgage loans in a COVID-19-related forbearance plan that are 90 days or more delinquent and were current at the inception of the COVID-19-related forbearance plan. The UPB of such mortgage loans shall be multiplied by .30 and added to the UPB for SDQ mortgage loans for the purposes of determining the numerator in the calculation of the Agency SDQ Rate.

Retail REITs TRIPLE Whammy: House Bubble Burst, Online Shopping, COVID

It is tough to operate a retail Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) in the face of the triple whammy that hit retail shopping. First, there was the housing bubble/subprime crisis of 2008-2009. Then there was the advent of on-line shopping, then COVID.

I look at the NAREIT retail index and two retail REITs for comparison: Simon Property Group and Washington REIT. And as a proxy for online shopping, I compare them to Amazon. Both Washington REIT and the NAREIT retail index were at loft valuations at the peak of the housing bubble, but crashed with the onset of the housing bubble burst and ensuing financial crisis. But following The Great Recession, both recovered by 2016 (along with Simon Property Group which actually far exceeded their pre-Great Recession peak.

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But then retail mall disaster struck. In the form of on-line shopping. I use Amazon to represent on-line shopping. While NAREIT Retail and Simon fell from their 2016 peak, Washington REIT got clobbered.

Then Covid struck. When combined with on-line shopping and fear mongering by Anthony Fauci, retail REITs got hit hard. But all three have rebounded slightly since their nadir in 2020.

An interesting case study is Glimcher REIT, a formerly privately-held commercial real estate development company from Columbus Ohio. Like other retail REITs, Glimcher was crushed by the financial crisis and Great Recession. Glimcher’s share price fought back to $14.06 per share (down considerably from $29.28 in February 2007).

Washington Prime Group Inc. acquired Glimcher Realty Trust for $4.3 Billion in stock and cash Including the assumption of Glimcher’s debt. Right as on-line shopping took off. And the Covid struck a death blow leaving Washington Prime trading at $0.98. Washington REIT is transforming into a multifamily REIT given the overbuilding of DC area office space and the triple whammy of retail centers.

Retail REITs have almost recovered from Covid, thanks to the massive monetary stimulus from The Federal Reserve. Not to mention fiscal stimulus from DC.

Yup, a triple whammy has hit retail REITs with some faring better than others.

But the NAREIT RESIDENTIAL Index has exploded with Fed stimulus.

Well done, Pazuzu Powell!

Homebuying Startup Orchard Reaches $1 Billion Unicorn Valuation (But What Is House Price Growth Slows … Or Falls??)

Let’s get ready to tumble! New homebuying startup emerges as US house prices begin slowing.

(Bloomberg) — Orchard, which offers cash to homebuyers upfront so they can purchase a new residence before selling their old one, raised $100 million to fuel growth in an ultra-competitive housing market that’s pushing shoppers to find new ways to stand out.

The fundraising round values the startup at more than $1 billion, making it the latest unicorn company to tackle the challenge of simplifying the process of buying or selling a home. Boston-based Accomplice led the round, with existing investors FirstMark, Revolution, First American and Juxtapose also participating.

“We can say we’re a unicorn, which feels good for about five seconds, and then it’s back to the real world of building a business,” Chief Executive Officer Court Cunningham said in an interview. “We’re trying to create a modern way to buy and sell homes, and that’s capital intensive.”

Cunningham, previously CEO of online marketing company Yodle, started Orchard in 2017 to take on what he viewed as a ripe opportunity: Consumers were frustrated with the traditional way of buying and selling homes, and the $1.7 trillion U.S. housing market was big enough to make tackling the problem worthwhile.

Orchard focuses on people who are trying to buy their next home while selling an existing one, a nerve-wracking process that can cause a transaction to collapse or result in households carrying two mortgages.
In addition to offering cash to help clients buy their next home, the New York-based company provides funds to make light repairs before listing the existing home on the market. Orchard seeks to profit by operating as a brokerage and earning commissions.

There have always been services that purchase homes from you. Typically, there firms simply pay off your mortgage, so if you have a higher mortgage balance relative to you home value, you may not like what you are offered. But Orchard is not that model.

If you “List with Orchard,” and your home doesn’t end up selling on the open market, Orchard will buy your home. Sellers in some markets also have the option to sell immediately to the company. Orchard wants you to list for 30 days before selling to them for their backup cash offer price. If you sell directly to Orchard, you’ll also pay an additional 1% convenience fee on top of the 6% you’re already paying commission.

When home prices have been rising at a 17-18% YoY pace, this seems like a good model. But what if The Federal Reserve removes it massive monetary stimulus and/or The Federal Government slows down it fiscal stimulus? Then Orchard, if they purchase your home, will likely lose considerable amounts. Being aware of this possibility, Orchard is likely to buy homes at a considerable discount.

But there is still worries about inflation. Here is the Citi Inflation Surprise index.

Orchard has a northern Virginia site.

Publicly traded companies known as iBuyers are pioneering a high-tech approach to home-flipping intended to make selling properties easier. Those firms include Opendoor Technologies Inc., Redfin Corp., and Offerpad Solutions Inc. A fourth, Zillow Group Inc., recently raised $450 million by issuing bonds, backed by the homes it buys and sells.

Whoomp, there it is.

Bond Market Set to Test Powell Push to Delink Hikes From Taper (As FANG+ Stocks SOAR With Fed Asset Purchases And ADP Added Only 374k Jobs In August)

Since the original model of The Federal Reserve was to purchase Treasuries and Agency MBS in an effort to push down interest rates, it will be quite difficult to delink the two: taper the balance sheet while not raising short-term rates.

(Bloomberg) — Bond investors may not wait long to start pushing back against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s efforts to delink the start of asset-purchase tapering from the countdown to eventual policy-rate hikes.

Since Powell last week said the central bank could begin reducing its monthly bond buying this year, traders have stuck with early 2023 as the likely timing for the Fed’s liftoff from zero interest rates, and Treasury yields have barely budged.

But that calm faces a test starting Friday. The potential for volatility comes from the fact that when Fed officials gather this month, they will release fresh projections for the fed funds rate for the next few years. And with the labor market pivotal for Fed policy now, Friday’s August jobs report is seen as laying the foundation for these forecasts — collectively known as the dot plot — especially as some Fed officials have already been pushing for an early taper.

The upshot is that a robust reading Friday could have investors pulling forward tightening bets regardless of Powell’s efforts last week in his virtual speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. The risk is traders will prepare for a repeat of June, when a hawkish signal via the dot-plot took markets by surprise and triggered an abrupt unwinding of wagers on a steeper yield curve. 

If the employment report is “even deemed acceptable, regional presidents will be back on the tape in a flash,” sounding hawkish again, said Jim Vogel, an analyst at FHN Financial. “And you may have more officials penciling in a 2022 hike. And that would have to flatten the yield curve.”

Expectations for a hawkish shift would lift 5-year Treasury yields in particular, shrinking the gap with 30-year rates, Vogel said. That spread was around 114 basis points Wednesday, down from about 140 just before the Fed met in mid-June. 

Dots Math

Officials’ June quarterly forecasts not only showed a median funds rate projection of two hikes in 2023 — after the March dot plot indicated no tightening until at least 2024 — but that seven participants saw at least one increase next year. This time around, it will take just three officials to raise their dots for 2022 for a full hike to be the new median for next year, assuming everyone else keeps their projections where they were.

Traders responded to the Fed’s June rate projections by driving 5-year yields up the most in almost four months. That was even as Powell said in his press conference that the dot plot should be taken with a “big grain of salt” and discussion about raising rates would be “highly premature.”

Powell last week said “the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test.”

But the leadup to the Fed decision on Sept. 22 may culminate in a dot-plot unveiling that yet again presents a communication challenge for policy makers, as has been seen several times since the Fed introduced the projections in 2012.

“There’s information in the dots, and generally it’s good information,” said Shahid Ladha, head of Group-of-10 rates strategy for the Americas at BNP Paribas SA. It makes sense for the Fed, regarding tapering and rate hikes, “to try to separate them, but I don’t think they’ll be ultimately successful in separating them.”

Trouble Ahead

Even some Fed officials are wary of being able to disentangle the tapering from rate hikes, minutes from the July Fed meeting showed.

Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed-income strategy at WisdomTree Investments Inc., which runs exchange-traded funds with assets of $75 billion, sees trouble for the Fed. 

His view is that the labor market will keep gaining ground in its rebound from the pandemic, and that the median September dot may show a hike in 2022. That bodes for higher yields, a flatter curve and makes floating-rate notes appealing, he said.

The median of economists’ projection is for a gain of 725,000 jobs in August, a slowdown from June and July but well above the average for 2021. Of course, with millions still out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels, the Fed may prove to take longer to lift rates than traders expect, especially given the central bank’s “broad and inclusive” maximum-employment goal. But the market may be about to challenge that approach.

Note: Yesterday’s ADP jobs gain was forecast to be 625k jobs added in August, but only 374k jobs were actually added.

Fed Faces ‘Ugly Fight’ Over Jobs Goal in Next Big Policy Debate

“We are going to be all of a sudden talking about rate hikes potentially next year, and that is where the focus of the bond market is going to go,” Flanagan said. “The dot plot will be the Fed’s initial message for its forward guidance on rates. And then it will begin to come from Fedspeak — which is when the rubber will really meet the road.” 

And with the stock market, particularly technology stocks, rising with Fed asset purchases, I wonder if The Fed forecasts that assets prices will keep going if they withdraw the punch bowl?

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang can forecast the stock market if they taper the balance sheet and raise rates.