There is no doubt that the US economy is slowing, thanks in part to The Federal Reserve’s sudden crusade to slow inflation (caused by … The Federal Reserve and Federal spending).
My favorite chart is US Average Hourly Earnings YoY. It peaked in March at 5.6% and has been slowing to 5.1% in June. BUT historically high inflation has caused REAL US Average Hourly Earnings YoY to decline to -3.25%.
The good news? 372k jobs were added in June. The bad news? It was lower than jobs added in May (390k) showing a slowing trend.
Unemployment remained at 3.6%. Labor force participation fell to 62.2%.
The US labor force participation remains below the pre-Covid levels despite staggering Fed monetary stimulus. But what happens when The Fed’s “Snake Juice” is withdrawn??
Here is a nice summary table.
US 30 year mortgage rates resumed their vertical climb as The Fed continues to tighten their loose monetary policy.
But the jobs report was good enough to lead to the US Treasury 10Y yield to jump 10.3 basis points today.
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