US Mortgage Origination Remain Subdued At Fed Keeps Target Rate At 3.75% (US Home Prices Have Over Doubled Since 2015 Making Housing Unaffordable For Millions)

Large bank mortgage originations have crashed and burned since 2022. The Fed has raised rates following the Covid outbreak and have not cut rates in a significant manner.

Another problem facing the US economy is that housing prices have over doubled since 2015.

My reaction to the Fauci testimony in Congress.

I am surprised that no one in Congress asked Dr, Fauci about how Covid crisis impacted the housing market.

Real Home Price Growth Is Negative (Worse In China), Fed Money Printing (M2) Increasing, China’s Money Printing Increasing Even Faster Than US

US home prices are clearly unaffordable for younger households, given the dearth of true starter homes. As of Q1 2026, REAL US residential property prices fell -2.1% YoY.

China’s real residential property prices are declining even faster than the US.

The US Federal Reserve is printing money M2 at a 5.6% YoY pace. Slower than during the Covid outbreak, and slower than the decade prior to Covid.

China is printing money at a gutwrenching pace (10.5% YoY as of August 2019). Note that China has historically printed money faster than The Federal Reserve.

Global Central Banks are the Neegans of the global economy.

Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, the highest since May 2023, but … Fed printed M2 at 4.6% annually in March

The inflation numbers are out for April. Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually, higher than The Fed’s target rate of 2%.

To be fair, The Federal Reserve pumped up the money supply (M2) by 4.6% in March.

According to the BLS, gasoline prices rose 28.4% annually in April while shelter rose 3.3% annually.

Do the Federal Reserve dance!

US Debt To GDP Ratio At 1.22 (Nothing Has Been The Same Since 2020 Covid Outbreak)

It used to be that a debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio above 1.0 would be disastrous. Yet, the US Debt-to-GDP ratio rises during and after most recessions. Why? The old Keynesian model called for increased government spending and debt to pull the country out of a recession. But the Keynesian model called for debt to be repaind after the recession ended. But after most recessions, the Federal government keeps spending and borrowing. Following the Covid outbreak of 2020, the US debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 1.0 and has remained fairly constant since.

As of today, the US Federal debt load is $39.204 trillion while GDP is $32.090 trillion resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 1.22.

The leader in the debt-to-GDP race is … Sudan! Followed by Japan and Singapore.

As lowest debt-to-GDP ratio nations are energy-rich Brunei (2.3%) and Kuwait (3%).

Housing Permits Fall To 7 Month Low, Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, 2Y Treasury Yield Jumps 10 BPS (Ill Gov JB Pritzker Approves Psychedelic Gerrymandered Map)

March housing starts hit their highest level since December 2024 but permits fell sharply to a seven-month low.

Yesterday’s Fed meeting left interest rates unchanged but 2y Treasury yield jumped 10bps to 3.94%.

Here is the Illinois Congressional map that Ill Governor JB Pritzker approved. Almost looks like a psychedelic map of R Crumb.

It almost looks like artist R Crumb drew the Congressional map of Illinois.

Mortgage Employment Headcount Lowest Since Housing Bubble Of 2005 As Case-Shiller National Home Price Index UP 0.29% In February (Denver Leads In Price Declines Beating Tampa)

Home values in Denver are falling faster than any other major metro area tracked by a key index, earning the Mile High City a dubious distinction as the weakest housing market in the nation.

More than half of major U.S. metropolitan areas posted year-over-year home price declines in February, with Denver (-2.2%) displacing Tampa (-2.1%) as the weakest market, according to data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.

Los Angeles (-0.8%) and Washington, DC (-0.1%) also joined the list of markets with falling home values, signaling weakness that expanding out of the long-suffering Sunbelt region.

kkk

Mortgage employee headcount has fallen to lowest level since the housing bubble and mortgage crisis of 2005-2008.

2025 New Home Sales Highest Since 2021 (Down -1.7% MoM In December)

US New Home Sales dipped 1.7% MoM in December (after a 15.5% MoM surge in November)…

…but ended the year at 745k – the highest SAAR since 2021…

“New” home sales have notably decoupled from “used” home sales in the last few years as homebuilders incentivize buyers (reducing margins) and lower prices (reducing revenues)…

Lower mortgage rates support modest further improvements in sales…

Will Trump get rid of tariffs on Canadian lumber?

January US Industrial Production Rises 0.7% MoM, Capacity Utilization At 76.22% (So Much For Trump Tariffs Killing US Manufacturing!)

So much for the leftist fearmongers claiming that Trump Tariffs will kill US manufacturing, In January, US industrial production rose 0.7% MoM. And 2.28% YoY.

Capacity utililzation rose in January to 76.22%.

Pass the Save Act and don’t listen to leftist propaganda that women won’t be allowed to vote. Then get a passport and show that.

Average Homeowner Tenure Rises To 8.6 Years (Americans Aren’t Moving Much)

Higher housing prices and higher than normal mortgages produces rising average homeowner tenure.

And Americans aren’t moving.

The ratio of home prices to median household income is the highest since “The Big Short” home price collapse.

Post Powell Panic! Gold And Silver Crash Following Fed’s Decision To Do Nothing

Call it the Post Powell Panic! After The Fed decided to do nothing at the FOMC meeting.

Gold is down -12% from the peak, trading below $5,000.

Silver is down -21%, trading below $100 for the first time since Friday, officially in a BEAR MARKET.

Rough night in the precious metals market space. An absolute BLOODBATH.

Is the top behind us?

Gold -6%
Silver -12%
Copper -4%
Platinum -13%
Palladium -11%

Trillions in market cap wiped out in a few hours.

Powell at The Fed FOMC meeting imitating former Fed Chair Janet Yellen. And Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair who is expected to maintain Fed indepence.