Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden (Fed Pivot Expected At March 2023 Meeting)

  • Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
  • Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all time frames, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration. 

And with that terrible news for the economy, the Fed Funds Futures market is hinting at a March 2023 pivot from The Fed.

The good news? The stock market is up BIG today. Likely because investors feel that the stock market has been oversold. The NASDAQ Composite Index lies beneath the Ichimoku Cloud.

And the NASDAQ is close to the bottom Bollinger Band.