Will The Fed break the … market?
I love to teach, but my students at Chicago, Ohio State and George Mason would fall asleep when I would discuss repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements (or REPOs and Reverse REPOs). But repos and reverse repos are a critical part of the banking system.
In short, the Repo market is a window into what’s going on behind the scenes.
As Bidenflation soars, and The Fed counterattacks, we see Fed’s repo market remains elevated. Note that The Fed’s balance sheet (orange line) is only slowly being reduced.
Right now, the risk lurking in the shadows is Balance Sheet Runoff. The Fed, the markets, the regulators, have limited experience with the Fed shrinking the balance sheet. Bottom line: there’s a risk that Balance Sheet Runoff will breaking something.
The global stock market is up again today, despite Fed tightening and a war in Ukraine. The Dow is up 1.38% and the S&P 500 is up 1.75%.
Likely cause? Rumors that The Fed and other global central banks will pivot sooner than later.
It is likely that The Fed will pivot to prevent a crash and the stock market in pricing in that pivot.
Bernanke, Yellen and Powell are NOT Paul Volcker. In fact, I am coining a new nickname for Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Pivot Powell.