Q3 US Real GDP Growth At 5% (So Much For The Iran “War” Slump)

According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now REAL time model, Q3 Real GDP is 5%.

The subcomponents of GDP growth are as follows:

So much for the doom and gloom of Trump’s tariff “war” or Trump’s Iran “war.” 5% Real GDP growth is outstanding!

And The Fed keeps on printing money (M2)! Keep on printin’!

The Q3 Real GDP report is so good, I feel like yodeling!

US Mortgage Origination Remain Subdued At Fed Keeps Target Rate At 3.75% (US Home Prices Have Over Doubled Since 2015 Making Housing Unaffordable For Millions)

Large bank mortgage originations have crashed and burned since 2022. The Fed has raised rates following the Covid outbreak and have not cut rates in a significant manner.

Another problem facing the US economy is that housing prices have over doubled since 2015.

My reaction to the Fauci testimony in Congress.

I am surprised that no one in Congress asked Dr, Fauci about how Covid crisis impacted the housing market.

Mortgage Employment Headcount Lowest Since Housing Bubble Of 2005 As Case-Shiller National Home Price Index UP 0.29% In February (Denver Leads In Price Declines Beating Tampa)

Home values in Denver are falling faster than any other major metro area tracked by a key index, earning the Mile High City a dubious distinction as the weakest housing market in the nation.

More than half of major U.S. metropolitan areas posted year-over-year home price declines in February, with Denver (-2.2%) displacing Tampa (-2.1%) as the weakest market, according to data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.

Los Angeles (-0.8%) and Washington, DC (-0.1%) also joined the list of markets with falling home values, signaling weakness that expanding out of the long-suffering Sunbelt region.

kkk

Mortgage employee headcount has fallen to lowest level since the housing bubble and mortgage crisis of 2005-2008.

US Industrial Production Rises For 4th Straight Month In February (0.2% MoM, 1.4% YoY)

So much for the “Trump has ruined the economy” mantra of politicians and celebrities.

After a strong gain in January, US Industrial Production continued to expand in February, rising 0.2% MoM (better than expected +0.1%) – the fourth straight month of gains with Production up 1.44% YoY.

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing output also beat expectations, rising 0.2% MoM in February.

Durable manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent, with mixed results across categories; the index for motor vehicles and parts posted the largest gain, and the index for machinery posted the largest loss.
Nondurable manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, with gains in the production of chemicals, of plastic and rubber products, and of paper products outweighing declines in the output of petroleum and coal products and of food, beverage, and tobacco products. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) rose 1.3 percent.
Mining output increased 0.8 percent in February, following a 0.9 percent increase in January. The output of utilities fell 0.6 percent in February, reflecting no change in the index for electric utilities and a 4.7 percent drop in the index for natural gas utilities.

Source: Bloomberg

Capacity Utilization printed 76.3 (better than expected)…

…maintaining the positive trend since Trump’s second term began.

Fear! Extreme Fear In Markets At -13 (Greed Is 50 And Above)

Collapsing crypto and metal prices coupled with a tanking stock market is pointing to EXTREME FEAR.

The BofA bull and bear indicator says the same thing.

The realization that government is just a money laundering operation for politicians and that The Fed is just a friend of the big banks says it all.

State Of The Housing Market! Lowest Turnover In Decades, New Construction Premium Vanishes, Median Age Of First-Time Homebuyers Is 40

Home prices exploded under Biden and Covid Federal spending. Making housing unaffordable for millions. Now the turnover rates for homes is at its lowesst rate in decades.

Existing homes are now more expensive than new homes.

Florida housing is getting gut-punched from Naples to Punta Gorda.

Yikes! Median age of first time homebuyers is 40.

Fortunately, Joe Biden is out of office. But Chuck Schumer may make a comeback and restart the insane Covid-era spending. Schumer, the penultimate knucklehead in Congress, approved Ketanji Brown Jackson to sit on the Supreme Court of the USA.

Post Powell Panic! Gold And Silver Crash Following Fed’s Decision To Do Nothing

Call it the Post Powell Panic! After The Fed decided to do nothing at the FOMC meeting.

Gold is down -12% from the peak, trading below $5,000.

Silver is down -21%, trading below $100 for the first time since Friday, officially in a BEAR MARKET.

Rough night in the precious metals market space. An absolute BLOODBATH.

Is the top behind us?

Gold -6%
Silver -12%
Copper -4%
Platinum -13%
Palladium -11%

Trillions in market cap wiped out in a few hours.

Powell at The Fed FOMC meeting imitating former Fed Chair Janet Yellen. And Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair who is expected to maintain Fed indepence.

Keep On Printing? National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November As M2 Money Growth Slows

Keep on printing money. It seems that home price growth requires The Fed to keep printing money.

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (“November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain In November 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.4% annual gain for November, in line with the previous month.

Real home values declined as consumer inflation (2.7%) outpaced the National Index gain (1.4%) by 1.3 percentage points.

Regional divergence persisted: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led by Chicago (+5.7%) and New York (+5.0%) posted gains, while Sun Belt cities including Tampa (–3.9%), Phoenix (–1.4%), Dallas (–1.4%), and Miami (–1.0%) saw declines.
…
“Regional patterns continue to illustrate a stark divergence. Chicago leads all cities for a second consecutive month with a 5.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. These historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern markets have maintained respectable gains even as overall conditions cool. By contrast, Tampa home prices are 3.9% lower than a year ago – the steepest decline among the 20 cities, extending that market’s 13-month streak of annual drops. Other Sun Belt boomtowns remain under pressure as well: Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%) each continue to see year-over-year declines, a dramatic turnaround from their pandemic-era strength.

“Monthly price changes were mixed but leaned negative in November, underscoring persistent softness. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw prices decline from October (versus 16 declines in the previous month). Only a handful of markets – including Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, and Phoenix – eked out slight gains before seasonal adjustment. After accounting for typical seasonal slowing, the National Index inched up just 0.4% for the month, indicating that price momentum remains muted.
…
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for November. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.0%, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, up from a 1.3% increase in the previous month.
…
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a drop of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite Index fell 0.03%, while the 10-City Composite Index increased 0.1%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4%, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.5%.

Strong Buyers Market In Housing! 47.1% More Sellers Than Buyers

Its some kind of wonderful … for home buyers.

Home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47.1% in December 2025, the largest gap since Redfin data began in 2013.

The percentage jumped by +7.1 points from November, the biggest monthly increase since September 2022.

The number of active homebuyers fell -5.9% MoM to 1.34 million, the lowest level on record.

Meanwhile, home sellers declined -1.1% MoM to 1.97 million, the lowest since February 2025.

By comparison, in November 2021, there were 36.5% fewer sellers than buyers.

This all comes as elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty continue to push buyers to the sidelines.

Buyers now hold unprecedented negotiating power, but only if they can afford to enter the market.

Let’s see what sugar babe (aka The Federal Reserve) does.

Mortgage Market After Covid! Soaring Home Prices And Mortgage Rates Led To Collapse Of Mortgage Originations

Like The Talking Heads song “Life During Wartime,” we are dealing with the mortgage market affer Covid. What happened? Mortgage originations plunged after mortgage rates (red line) soared.

In addition, insane Federal spending levels caused housing prices to soar.

‘Stay warm!