Tag: @stevefeiss

Alarm! Gold And Cryptos Rise As Covid Spreads (Again)

The Covid Delta Variant seems to be picking up steam, we are seeing “flight to safety” assets other than Treasuries rising.

Gold and Silver experienced some serious corrections last week, perhaps because things were looking up. Then we saw Anthony Fauci scaring everyone about Covid … again. So, there is enormous uncertainty about how this will play out. In other words, ALARM!

Bitcoin and Ethereum have been climbing since Gold and Silver corrected last week. But both are up this week, particularly Gold.

The US Dollar is down slightly since the same time last year and M2 Money Stock growth has slowed.

Here is a chart showing another fear factor: the rise of the Covid Delta Variant. Deaths are only 1.7% of confirmed cases (if we believe the actual cause of death).

US Real Average Hourly Earnings “Rise” To -1.2% YoY While Core Inflation Decreases Slightly To 4.3% YoY

US inflation remains nears its highest level since 1991, but moderated slightly.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for shelter, food, energy, and new vehicles all increased in July and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The food index increased 0.7 percent in July as five of the major grocery store food group indexes rose, and the food away from home index increased 0.8 percent. The energy index rose 1.6 percent in July, as the gasoline index increased 2.4 percent and other energy component indexes also rose.

US Real Average Hourly Earning YoY “rose” to -1.2% as core inflation “moderated” to +4.3%, the second highest reading since 1991.

Core inflation remains at 1991 levels.

With core CPI growing at 4.3%, the baseline Taylor Rule model implies that the Fed Funds target rate should be 7.05%, not the current rate of 0.25%.

As The Fed keeps rolling the dice on zero-interest rate policies.