S&P 500 Implied Correlation Remains Elevated (70.56) As Volatility Subsides

March was truly a horrific month for employment and markets. But S&P 500 volatility is subsiding while the components of the S&P 500 remain at increased levels of implied correlation.

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Not surprisingly, JPMChase and Blackrock are highly correlated.

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The CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index measures the expected average correlation of price returns of S&P 500 Index components, implied through SPX option prices and prices of single- stock options on the 50 largest components of SPX.

Fed Chair Powell has upwards of $11.6 million invested with BlackRock, the firm that will manage a $750 billion corporate bond bailout program for the Fed.

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MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications Decline 35% YoY

Mortgage applications increased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 10, 2020.

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The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 192 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 35 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

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On the bright side, most of the decline in purchase application occurred before last week.

So, it appears that no more snake juice is required.

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Courtesy of the great Jesse from Jesse’s Cafe Americain!

Limbo Rock! US Treasury 10Y Yield Falls 12.6 Basis Points To 0.926% As Dow Drops 800 Points

The Washington Post had a howler of a story yesterday: “U.S. markets post big gains as Joe Biden’s Super Tuesday surge offers coronavirus respite”

It that was true, it was a very short-term effect given that the Dow dropped 800 points this morning.

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Or was it something else … like the IMF throwing $50 billion at the Coronavirus. And more stimulus from Central Banks like The Federal Reserve? But those effects were short-lived too.

The US 10Y Treasury yield fell another 12.6 basis points this AM to 0.926%. The lowest in history.

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And Freddie Mac’s 30Y mortgage survey rate (green line) continues to follow the 10Y Treasury rate down the rabbit hole.

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How long will rates go?

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I want to thank Rick Sharga for remembering that I was one of the few that predicted what is happening today with interest and mortgage rates while most others predicted mortgage rates would rise above 8%.