Strange Days! US Adds 517k Jobs In January While ADP Adds Only 106k Jobs (Avg Hourly Earnings At 4.4% YoY While Headline Inflation At 6.5%)

Strange days indeed!

Today’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statists (BLS) was stunning. 517k jobs added! Very strange since the ADP jobs added report on Febuary 1st was only 106k. THAT is a huge discrepancy (probably a seasonal adjustment in the BLS reporting).

Average hourly earnings rose to 4.4% YoY. Too bad headline inflation is still roaring at 6.5%. So, the inflation tax is still overwhelming wage growth.

The spread between the January jobs report (BLS) and the ADP jobs added report (ADP) is similar to the infamous jobs report that the Philly Fed “corrected” (orange circle).

Here is the summary of the BLS numbers.

And on the strange jobs report, US Treasury 10-year yields are up 10+ basis points.

Where were the jobs added? How about “Hey Bartender!” since leisure and hospitality added 128k jobs in January.

  • Leisure and hospitality added 128,000 jobs in January compared with an average of 89,000 jobs per month in 2022. Over the month, food services and drinking places added 99,000 jobs, while employment continued to trend up in accommodation (+15,000).
  • In January, employment in professional and business services rose by 82,000, led by gains in professional, scientific, and technical services (+41,000). Job growth in professional and business services averaged 63,000 per month in 2022.
  • Government employment increased by 74,000 in January. Employment in state government education increased by 35,000, reflecting the return of university workers after a strike.
  • Health care added 58,000 jobs in January. Job growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+30,000), nursing and residential care facilities (+17,000), and hospitals (+11,000).
  • Employment in retail trade rose by 30,000 in January, following little net growth in 2022 (an average of +7,000 per month). In January, job gains in general merchandise retailers (+16,000) and in furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance retailers (+7,000) were partially offset by a decline in health and personal care retailers (-6,000).
  • Construction added 25,000 jobs in January, reflecting an employment gain in specialty trade contractors (+22,000). Employment in the construction industry grew by an average of 22,000 per month in 2022.
  • In January, transportation and warehousing added 23,000 jobs, the same as the industry’s average monthly gain in 2022. Over the month, employment in support activities for transportation increased by 7,000.
  • Employment in social assistance increased by 21,000 in January, little different from the 2022 average gain of 19,000 per month.
  • Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in January (+19,000). In 2022, manufacturing added an average of 33,000 jobs per month.
  • Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; information; financial activities; and other services.

The source of the jobs miracle? Changes in how jobs are measured.

Changes to The Employment Situation Data |
| |
| Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking |
| process, the NAICS 2022 conversion, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. |
| Also, household survey data for January 2023 reflect updated population estimates. |
| See the notes at the end of this news release for more information.