Mortgage applications increased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 12, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 0.5 percent from the previous week and was 11 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Bidenomics, a massive subsidy to the political donor class, but heartless towards the middle class.
Come feel the noise! After steady growth in 1-unit housing starts under Trump, housing starts have been eratic under Biden despite the foreign invasion force of millions … of low wage workers.
For context, this is the largest MoM drop in housing starts since the COVID lockdowns…
Source: Bloomberg
It was a bloodbath across the board with Rental Unit Starts plummeting 20.8% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed total multi-family starts SAAR down to its lowest since COVID lockdowns…
The plunge in permits was less dramatic and driven completely by single-family permits down 5.7% to 973K SAAR, from 1.032MM, this is the lowest since October. Multi-family permits flat at 433K
Intriguingly, while starts and completions plunged in March, the BLS believes that construction jobs surged to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, just what will homebuilders do now that expectations for 2024 rate-cuts have collapsed?
Source: Bloomberg
One thing is for sure – do not trust what homebuilders ‘say’ (as NAHB confidence jumped to its highest since May 2022 at the same time as housing starts crashed)…
One reason that America’s youth is disgusted with Bidenomics is skyrocketing prices, particulalry housing. (simply unaffordable). Thanks to awful economic policies, home prices are up 32.5% under Biden and 30-year mortgage rates are up a whopping 160%! Good luck buying a home with a part-time job.
The bad news is that the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.53%, the highest since November 2023. This means that mortgage rates will rise even further.
Yes, rising rates AND home prices are daunting to part-time job holders.
Funky cold Joe Biden is his reaction to inflation caused by his outragous spending. His legion of sycophants are now saying inflation is a good thing or don’t notice it. But Biden will never stop spending .
Coming into today’s CPI number, which followed three previous red-hot inflation prints, we said that it’s time for a “miss” (the first of 2024) not because the data demands it – on the contrary, prices continue to rise at a frightening pace – but because a dovish CPI print today would be the last opportunity for the Fed to set a timetable for a rate cut calendar ahead of November’s election.
Well, you can wave goodbye to all that, because we just got the 4th consecutive “inflation beat” in a row…
… with supercore inflation coming in blazing hot…
… thanks to a boiling inflation print which saw every single CPI metric coming in hotter than expected – was a shock, not because it reflected reality, but because it effectively sealed Biden’s fate because as Bloomberg’s Chris Antsey writes, “obviously, this is very bad news for Joe Biden… we’re approaching the point where high inflation is bound to still be in voters’ minds when they head to the polls, regardless of how the price figures come in over summer.”Easy financial conditions continue to provide a significant tailwind to growth and inflation. As a result, the Fed is not done fighting inflation and rates will stay higher for longer.”
It’s about to get even worse: recall today we have a $39 billion 10-year auction which is already being dubbed “sloppy” and a definitive break of 4.5% could easily extend if underwriting dealers are left holding the bag. As it stands, the 10yr has popped above the 4.5% parapet. Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets says:“We expect the setup to the auction will break 4.50% in 10-year yields with ease.”
Obviously, this is very bad news for Joe Biden. It’s still only April, and we’ll have another half-a-year’s worth of inflation reports before the election. But we’re approaching the point where high inflation is bound to still be in voters’ minds when they head to the polls, regardless of how the price figures come in over summer.
Joe Biden continues to act like a gangsta giving away student loan forgiveness despite being told no by the US Supreme Court. As I said, Funky Cold Joe Biden. But Biden’s gangstaism favors the top 0.5% of net worth people, not the masses.
As Biden gropes for more voters, claiming he was raised in Puerto Rican, Greek, Black, and every other race on the planet, he probably sings “Ride The White Horse” to The Presidency. Reminiscint of Hillary Clinton claiming she kept a packet of hot sauce in her purse when talking to a black commentator.
Although the Attom data is from Q3 2023, not much has changed. Under Biden (and his HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, Fed Chair Jay Powell, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen), I did manage to find TWO AFFORDABLE areas to live: Shreveport Louisiana and Midland/Odessa Texas. The housing market remains unaffordable for millions of Americans.
I am not surprised given that the Case-Shiller National home price index has risen by 32.7% under Biden while mortgage rates are up … 149%.
Robin Hood is a legendary heroic outlaw originally depicted in English folklore and subsequently featured in literature, theatre, and cinema. Traditionally depicted dressed in Lincoln green, he is said to have stolen from the rich to give to the poor. Politicians have created the new “Forgotten Man” by Amity Shlaes.
However, politicians like Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell are “reverse Robin Hoods” dressed in business suits (although Jamie Raskin D-MD is often seen wearing a bandana and John Fetterman D-PA is often seen in a hoodie and shorts). They instead enact policies that steal from the middle class and give to themselves and the donor class. How do you think that politicians like the Bidens, Obama, Clintons and AOC go in broke and emerge as multi-millionaires?
Part of the problem with the reverse Robin Hood model is the Federal Reserve itself. They helped punish the 99% with inflation due to excessive money printing. The share of total net worth held by the top 1% has exploded since The Fed’s rate cuts following the 2001 recession. The Fed has never lowered rates since to levels we saw prior to the 2001 recession, although The Fed is getting close.
Then we have the green energy hysteria (which like pornography excites the brain and distorts logical thinking). Wealthy donors have received a massive windfall (along with China) from Biden/Congress’s green energy spending (scam). The middle class and low-wage workers are now playing higher utility bills (sacrificial lambs on the altar of global warming … or cooling) along with seeing gasoline and diesel prices far higher than before Biden was elected. Gasoline prices are up 46.25% under Biden and diesel prices are up 55.6%.
I like this chart of the distribution of household wealth by income group. The top 1% (the elite Pelosi class, are getting wealthier and wealthier. The 90-99% group are doing well, but not as well as the top 1%. The bottom 50% (who the Washington DC elite class seems to have forgotten about)
Here is a table of the same data.
Then we have the exploding mortgage rates under Biden. Rates are up over 155% under Old Grandad Joe Biden. Another shot through the heart of the middle class. And Washington DC is to blame.
Speaking of Washington DC millionaire elites, I want to share this picture with you. Hillary Clinton is NOT Robin Hood but an example of a REVERSE Robin Hood.
Cars and light trucks are seeing declining YoY sales in January (-0.7%) as M2 Money growth remains negative.
Automotive News was the first to report Ford Motor Co. halted shipments of all 2024 F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks for an undisclosed quality control issue just weeks after slashing production volumes for the EV model due to sliding demand.
“We expect to ramp up shipments in the coming weeks as we complete thorough launch quality checks to ensure these new F-150s meet our high standards and delight customers,” company spokeswoman Emma Bergg wrote in a statement.
Last month, Ford announced plans to slash the Lightning production in April “to achieve the optimal balance of production, sales growth and profitability.”
The automaker (and many others, like Mercedes Benz) is recalibrating its electric vehicle strategy as the Biden administration plans to downshift the EV transition as demand plummets.
Thousands of auto dealers nationwide recently warned the ‘climate change warriors’ in the White House: the 2030 EV push is backfiring.
“Currently, there are many excellent battery electric vehicles available for consumers to purchase. These vehicles are ideal for many people, and we believe their appeal will grow over time. The reality, however, is that electric vehicle demand today is not keeping up with the large influx of BEVs arriving at our dealerships prompted by the current regulations. BEVs are stacking up on our lots,” the dealers said.
They warned: “Already, electric vehicles are stacking up on our lots which is our best indicator of customer demand in the marketplace.”
“Key takeaways thus far from earnings season are that the EV slowdown is not showing any evidence of an inflection, Level 4 autonomy headwinds continue to persist, and fears over supplier inventory overbuild are likely overblown.
The Hollies said it best: Stop, stop, stop. FIAT Money Printing that is.
Typically, we look at M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) as a measure of how much the economy grows by expanding the money supply.
M2 Money Velocity is currently at 1.344, and still below where we were under Trump prior to Covid. After Powell printing palooza after Covid, M2 Money Velocity collapsed and is slowly rising, but remains low by historic standards.
Perhaps a more interest velocity is DEBT velocity (GDP/DEBT). Under Biden’s Reign of Error, Federal debt has increased by $6,539,359 million while real GDP has increased by only $1,948.731 billion (or roughly $2 trillion in GDP growth after $6.54 trillion in debt). Or a DEBT velocity of 0.3. Yikes! No wonder China is bailing on US debt!
This chart makes debt issuance look better than it really is. Again, the DEBT VELOCITY of 0.3 is terrible meaning that for every $1 of Federal debt, we get 30 cents in Real GDP under Biden. One of my macroeconomics textbooks stated that debt growth is fine as long as real GDP growth rises faster than debt growth. Apparently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen didn’t read that textbook! Real GDP has grown by 9.43% under Biden while Federal debt has grown by … gulp .. 24%.
Yes, the US is borrowing like the proverbial drunken sailor while they “invest” in green energy, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and massive social welfare programs (like the old breads and circuses from the dying Roman Empire). When watching the media’s obsession with Taylor Swift and Chief’s Tight End Travis Kelce at The Super Bowl, it reminded me of “Breads and Circuses” as our nation is collapsing like a dying star. (That is why I Iike Gold, Silver and Bitcoin!)
What about The Federal Reserve? It was created in 1913 after signed into existence by President Woodrow Wilson. Since The Fed’s inception, consumer purchasing power has declined by 97%.
And under Biden, inflation has been so bad that consumer purchasing power is down 16%.
In summary, The Federal Reserve has been printing like crazy (I would say Batshit Crazy, but I actually think bats are adorable). And Treasury (under former Fed Chair Janet Yellen) has been borrowing like crazy too. While politicians claim the economy is in great shape, it is really because The Fed is printing wildly, Yellen is borrowing wildly, and much of US GDP is not due to the private sector, but Federal government spending … to the donor class. This is NOT a sustainable and will eventually crash into a ravine.
I remember the joke made by Jay Leno about Obama. Go to a McDonalds and order whatever you want and give the bill to the person behind you. Unfortunately, that is the Democrat playbook under Obama/Biden (hereafter termed “O’Biden”). For example, Biden is bragging about forgiving student loan debt relief in the amount of $1.2 Billion in student debt for roughly 153,000 borrowers. And bragging that he is ignoring the US Supreme Court like a banana republic dictator. Like the Jay Leno “joke,” SOMEONE has to pay for this election year vote pandering. But that is the beauty/tragedy of BIG government. It is so big and the numbers so monstrous that many kind of shrug and go “eh.” But someone pays and its the middle class in the form of taxes and inflation.
Who is going to pay for the 10 million illegal immigrants that have crossed the southern border under Biden? While Paul Krugman points to a higher GDP from immigration (illegals still buy goods and services), but mostly are a deadweight drag on social services such as welfare, Medicare, schools, healthcare system, etc.). And of course migrant crime is going off the charts. Who pays for Biden’s border fiasco? The middle class and low wage workers, of course. Elites benefit from uncontrolled immigration, generally live in compounds with private security that the rest of us can’t afford. Remember President Carter and the Cuban Mariel boat lift where Fidel Castro emptied his prisons and sent them to Florida creating absolute mayhem and a huge spike in crime? Biden and Cuba Pete Mayorkas turning up the heat on immigration and its accompanied crime wave.
O’Biden loves to spend other people’s money. Aka, OUR money. Case in point. According to the CBO, net interest on the exploding Federal debt under O’Biden now exceeds our defense spending and that gap is expected to explode. To be sure, the US is funding billions in the middle east, handing over billions to Zelensky and Ukrainian oligarchs, and we have China. What a mess!
So, when will “Billions Biden” stop spending other people’s money? Well, only a barely-held Republican House can stop Biden. Meanwhile I will focus on soaring food prices and eat cheap cabbage rolls and drink coffee. Until Biden kills off those pleasures.
But don’t worry! We might get Gavin Newsom, the ultimate used car salesman, to replace Biden against Trump. But Biden’s ego is so massive (why I have no idea) that he won’t go down without a fight. And what about Cacklin’ Kamala?
US existing home sales disappointed in January jumping 3.1% MoM (vs +4.9% MoM exp). Quite a different picture from the non-seasonally-adjusted rise of just 0.3%…
Source: Bloomberg
This January rise dragged the YoY decline up to just -1.7%…
Source: Bloomberg
“While home sales remain sizably lower than a couple of years ago, January’s monthly gain is the start of more supply and demand,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
The median home price reached an all-time high for the month of January…
“Multiple offers are common on mid-priced homes, and many homes were still sold within a month. The elevated share of cash deals – 32% – indicated a market full of multiple offers and propelled by record-high housing wealth,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Additionally, properties typically remained on the market for 37 days in January, up from 29 days in December and 33 days in January 2023.
So who’s buying homes?
Well, you know the answer to that – even more institutional buyers as first-time homebuyers priced out
First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in January, down from 29% in December and 31% in January 2023.
All-cash sales accounted for 32% of transactions in January, up from 29% in both December and one year ago.
As a reminder, mortgage rates started off the year below 7% and have risen since…
Source: Bloomberg
So don’t expect this renaissance to continue.
And with mortgage rates hitting 7% … again. And rates are up over 155% under Biden.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.