Homebuyer Demand Outstrips Supply As Mortgage Rates Creep Up (Demand Has Grown 15X Faster Than Supply Since 2019 And The Entrance Of The Fed And Federal Stimulus)

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-up-47pct-from-2019/According to Redfin, forty-four percent more homes are pending sale than at this time in 2019, but only 3% more homes recently hit the market—down from 12% growth over 2019 just 7 weeks prior. As a result of the severe imbalance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers, the pace of the market is picking up at a time when it typically slows. A third of homes are finding buyers within a week of hitting the market, up from 30.8% at the end of the summer. This week, we’re comparing today’s market with the pre-pandemic fall market of 2019 to highlight how hot the market remains, even as most measures are settling into typical seasonal patterns.

“Comparing today’s sales and new listings numbers to the 2019 levels helps to reveal the stark shortage of supply we are facing,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “The boost of housing supply that came on the market during the summer has already faded away, even as demand tapers off as we expected it to in the fall. Relative to the last ‘typical’ fall of 2019, demand remains steady and strong thanks to the increased urgency many buyers have as mortgage rates inch up. Rising rates also make buyers more price sensitive, so homes that are priced right are increasingly likely to receive offers right away.”

Shortage of supply, indeed. It is a mystery to me why the supply of homes for sale is not matching the demand.

But what happened after 2019? COVID and the entrance of massive Federal Reserve and Federal government stimulus. With limited supply hitting the market, home prices soared with the government stimulus.

We are likely to see rising prices until Federal Stimulypto stops or at least slows.