Trouble With The Curve! US Yield Curve Rises Above 0 Slope While Mortgage Rates Fall

#bubble, #inflation, CMBS, CRE, Credit, Economy, Existing Home Sales, Fed, GDP, Gold, Housing, Inflation, Mortgage, New Home Sales, Powell, SPX, Stocks, Treasuries, Treasury, Uncategorized, Wages, Yellen, Yield Curve 1 Minute

We know several things about the yield curve. First, it goes negative before recessions. Second, it is related to the inverse of The Fed’s target rate (blue line).

How about the US mortgage rate? Generally, US Mortgage rates are inverse to the 10Y-3M yield curve, but lately the US mortgage rate (pink circle) have declined with the 10Y-3M yield curve.

The yield curve does forecast recessions, but is unreliable in forecasting mortgage rate movements.

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