Housing Permits Fall To 7 Month Low, Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, 2Y Treasury Yield Jumps 10 BPS (Ill Gov JB Pritzker Approves Psychedelic Gerrymandered Map)

March housing starts hit their highest level since December 2024 but permits fell sharply to a seven-month low.

Yesterday’s Fed meeting left interest rates unchanged but 2y Treasury yield jumped 10bps to 3.94%.

Here is the Illinois Congressional map that Ill Governor JB Pritzker approved. Almost looks like a psychedelic map of R Crumb.

It almost looks like artist R Crumb drew the Congressional map of Illinois.

Mortgage Employment Headcount Lowest Since Housing Bubble Of 2005 As Case-Shiller National Home Price Index UP 0.29% In February (Denver Leads In Price Declines Beating Tampa)

Home values in Denver are falling faster than any other major metro area tracked by a key index, earning the Mile High City a dubious distinction as the weakest housing market in the nation.

More than half of major U.S. metropolitan areas posted year-over-year home price declines in February, with Denver (-2.2%) displacing Tampa (-2.1%) as the weakest market, according to data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.

Los Angeles (-0.8%) and Washington, DC (-0.1%) also joined the list of markets with falling home values, signaling weakness that expanding out of the long-suffering Sunbelt region.

kkk


Mortgage employee headcount has fallen to lowest level since the housing bubble and mortgage crisis of 2005-2008.

Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era Levels For The Moment

Since the attack on Iran by Israelis and US forces, crude oil and gasoline prices have soared … back to Obama and Bidem era levels.

How about the impact of the Arctic cold blasts the northern states have received? You can see the spike in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price

Home Prices Rise 0.9% YoY Despite Lower Mortgage Rates (Blue City Mean Reversion, New York 4.9% YoY Gain, Chicago 4.6% YoY, Cleveland 3.6% YoY While Tampa -2.5%)

We are seeing mean reversion in home prices in red cities and blue cities.

The price of homes in America’s to 20 cities rose just 0.16% MoM in January (the lowest MoM rise since August and well below the 0.35% MoM expected.

Source: Bloomberg

Home prices rose 0.9% YoY as mortgage rates have fallen. Home prices are still too high.

New York leads with a 4.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 4.6% and Cleveland at 3.6%, while Tampa fell 2.5%…

Don’t be confused. This isn’t leftists running to blue cities. It is mean reversion. The prior fleeing blue cities to red cities created a mean reversion effect where red cities home prices rose too fast and blue cities fell too fast.

Little Rock?

Hot, Hot, Hot! Producer Prices Print At 0.7% MoM, 3.4% YoY In February (Hottest Since Jan 2025) What Will Powell And Fed Do?

Producer prices are hot, hot, hot!

Producer prices were higher by 3.4% YoY (notably hitter than the 3.0% expected and up from the 2.9% prior). That is the hottest PPI since January 2025

Source: Bloomberg

More than half of the February rise in prices for final demand can be attributed to a 0.5-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods increased 1.1 percent.

Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) also soared (+0.5% MoM) pushing core prices up by 3.9% YoY – the highest since Jan 2025.

Source: Bloomberg

What will Powell and The Fed do??

US Existing Home Sales Bounced In February +1.7 MoM, But Down -1.45% YoY (Inventory Still Low)

Existing home sales actually surprised to the upside, rising 1.7% MoM in February. Perhaps even more notably, January’s 8.4% MoM plunge was revised up to a slightly less crazy 5.9% MoM drop.

With the beat and upward revision, existing home sales were down just 1.45% YoY but SAAR topped 4mm (4.09mm) once again.

On the bright side, with mortgage rates at their lowest since 2022, existing home sales look set to continue to improve (unless Trump’s war triggers more panic in rates).

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.3% from a year earlier — one of the smallest advances since the pandemic housing frenzy — to $398,000 last month.

The inventory of previously owned homes increased 4.9% from a year ago to 1.29 million — the most for any February since 2020.

Mortgage rates? Up yesterday, but near lowest since 2023.

Global Uncertainty Hits An ALL-TIME HIGH! Higher Than Covid, 2008 Financial Crisis, Dot-com Crash COMBINED

Global uncertainty hits an ALL-TIME HIGH.

Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED.

You know what that means!

February Jobs Report -92k Jobs Lost As US Tries To Recover From 4 Years Of Bidenomics (Oil Prices Soar As Attacks Against Iran Continue)

Trump has been President for 1 year and fighting against Biden and the Democrats economic misery.

In February, the US lost 92,000 jobs, a huge drop from the downward revised 126K in January, and the second worst print since 2020 (only October’s shock -140K was worse), and this time, the massive drop can’t be dismissed as a one-time drop in government payrolls. The number of private payrolls dropped by 86K, also a huge miss to estimates of a 60K increase.

One potential mitigating factor: the number of people who were unable to work due to weather surged to 228K in February, well above last year’s level 167K, due to the powerful winter storms hitting the US.

  • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in February but is up from 1.5 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people in February. 
  • The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 477,000 to 4.4 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
  • The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little in February at 6.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
  • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.6 million in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 109,000 in February to 366,000. 

Turning to the establishment survey, which unveiled the shocking February drop, the BLS reported a broad-based decline, driven by striking employment workers:

  • Employment in health care decreased in February, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down. Payroll employment changed little on net in 2025. 
  • Health care employment declined by 28,000 in February, following a large increase in January (+77,000). Offices of physicians lost 37,000 jobs in February, primarily due to strike activity. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs. Over the prior 12 months, health care had added an average of 36,000 jobs per month. 
  • Employment in information continued to trend down in February (-11,000). The industry had lost an average of 5,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
  • In February, federal government employment continued to decline (-10,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 330,000, or 11.0 percent.
  • Employment in social assistance continued its upward trend in February (+9,000), driven by individual and family services (+12,000).
  • Transportation and warehousing employment changed little in February (-11,000). A job loss in couriers and messengers (-17,000) was partially offset by a gain in air transportation (+5,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has declined by 157,000, or 2.4 percent, since reaching a peak in February 2025.
  • Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Switching to oil, we see the West Texas Intermediate and Brent Oil prices soaring on the attacks on Iran.

To soothe you.

Typical Homeowner Stays In Home For 12 Years, Up From 6.5 Years In 2006 (Average Effective Mortgage Life Is Only 5-7 Years)

People are staying in their homes longer now than in 2006. 12 years now versus 6.5 years in 2006.

The average effective mortgage life is 5-7 years,

12 years in the same home makes housing policy more difficult to implement.

Home Price Adjustment! Average Hourly Earnings YoY ABOVE Home Price Growth YoY (Home Price Growth Exploded Following Federal Governments’ Covid-related Spending Splurge)

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain (YoY) for December 2025, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month. Average hourly earnings now at 3.73% YoY, higher than home price growth.

Home price growth exploded following The Federal governments’ Covid-related spending splurge.

Geographic divergence widened sharply: Chicago and New York led all markets with gains above 5%, while Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami posted the steepest declines among markets that finished the year in negative territory.

Inflation cooled significantly under Trump, but The Fed keeps printing M2!

Sure, Hillary, sure.