Inflation is burning out of control. While home price growth has been off the cherts (as Jean-Ralphio would say), commercial real estate has jumped incredibly at 22% YoY. The Bloomberg charting function hasn’t updated for the Q4 NCREIF report yet so I had to manually write-in 22% on the following chart.
To quote Dean Martin, “Ain’t that a kick in the head.” Commercial real estate returns are now higher than house price growth.
So, what will happen IF The Fed follows through with its monetary stimulus reduction? JPMC’s Jaime Dimon warns that The Fed could hike 7 times in 2022 and not be ‘sweet and gentle’.
But The Fed seems to be stuck in underworld and doing a terrible job at signalling their intentions if Dimon thinks that The Fed could raise rates 7 times in 2022.