Not exactly the economic report that the Biden Administration and The Federal Reserve were hoping for. To quote The Rolling Stones, “You can’t always get what you want.” Actually, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is more of a BLEEDING economic indicator as we enter 2024.
NEW YORK, Jan. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.
“The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”
| The annual growth rate of the LEI remains deeply negative. |
On an annual basis (YoY), the LEI is down -6.9%.
Am I surprised that the LEI is bleeding so badly? Not with “Vacation Joe” Biden at the helm! Or his eloquent Climate Envoy John Kerry!
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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