Tag: @calculatedrisk

Still Hot, Hot, Hot! US Existing Home Sales Fall -2.4% MoM In April, But Median Price Is 14.85% YoY And Inventory For Sale Remains MIA (Fed Stimulypto Still Helping Housing Bubble)

US Existing Home Sales were 5.61M SAAR in April, down -2.4% from March’s -3.0% MoM reading. But median prices YoY for existing home sales printed at 14.85%, still hot, hot, hot.

With 3 consecutive declines in MoM existing home sales, how can prices still be raging at 14.85%? First, inventory for sale in April remains low compared to 2010 (yellow line). Second, The Federal Reserve’s Stimulypto (excessive monetary easing) is still out there in force despite Jerome “Slowhand” Powell signaling rate increases (green line). 30Y mortgage rates are still rising.

Where do we go from here? 30 year mortgage rates have been climbing as The Fed signals its intents to tighten monetary policy. But with global economic slowing, Treasury yields have been coming down (like today’s -5.2 BPS drop (Germany’s 10Y Bund Yield dropped -8 BPS on slowing global economic growth).

But remember, the Existing Home Sales numbers are for April.

Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise 1% From Previous Week, But Down 18% From Last Year Thanks To Unaffordable Home Prices

Simply unaffordable is what singer Robert Palmer would say. Homes, that is.


Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 6, 2021.

The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. But recent declines in mortgage rates have produced a mini-refi wave (pink box).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago. But rapidly rising home prices have cooled mortgage purchase applications since the beginning of 2021.

Here is the data from the MBA showing a rise in mortgage applications from the previous week of 2.79%.

Inflation report coming up next!