The Great Dislocation! M2 Money Growth Crashes To 0% As M2 Velocity Near Lowest In History (21 Straight Months Of Negative Weekly Earnings Growth)

The 2020 Covid outbreak and the resulting government shutdowns and school closures begat a Washington DC spending spree and Federal Reserve monetary stimulus barrage unlike anything other time in history. Congress and Administrations love to spend other people’s money, but as Rahm Emanuel once said “You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before” And wow, did they ever binge spend and expand the M2 Money supply. I call it “The Great Dislocation” of the economy and we never recovered from it.

Or as Ray Wylie Hubbard sang, “Drinking with my low life companions, dancin’ with a woman who is not my wife.” This should be the theme song for Washington DC and their manic spending.

But after the massive spending splurges and Fed monetary stimultypto, The Fed finally started withdrawing “the punch bowl” to combat inflation. M2 Money growth year-over-year (YoY) is now 0%. And with inflation, US average weekly earnings growth YoY turned negativc and has been negative for 21 straight months.

After the spending explosion under Pelosi/Schumer and Powell’s monetary, M2 Money velocity (GDP/M2 Money) crashed to it lowest level in history. So now we have depressed money velocity and no M2 money growth. And the US still has 21 straight months of negative weekly earnings growth.

But former Fed Chair and current Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen is pleased that inflation is FINALLY slowing which Yellen attributes to relaxing supply chains. Or is it declining M2 Money growth, Janet?

Now that the Federal government’s spending spree and The Fed’s monetary stimulypto dislocated the US economy, we are headed for a recession with no ammunition left in The Fed’s arsenal.

After all. The Federal Reserve has been destroying consumer purchasing power since 1913. And we may be at the end of The Fed’s monetary rope.

Even worse, we have Joe Biden as President, who curiously has been found to have classified documents in his possession from when he was Vice President, at least, at two locations (his Wilmington DL home that his son Hunter had access to and the now infamous Penn Biden Center in Washington DC). Even worse, Biden seems to be talking to dead world leaders like Germany’s Schmidt and France’s Mitterand.

Knowing Biden’s penchant for blatant lying and carelessness, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a stack of classified documents on the table during his meeting with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Let’s hope Biden isn’t saying that he is talking to late Robert Kennedy, the former US Attorney General.

My Kuroda! BOJ’s Kuroda Shocks Markets By Loosening Rate Band (Final End To Uber-loose Japanese Monetary Policy)

My Kuroda!

(Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda just gave investors a glimpse of what to expect when the world’s boldest experiment with ultra-loose monetary policy comes to an end.

In the face of sustained market pressure, Kuroda shocked markets Tuesday by saying he’ll now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%, double the previous upper limit of 0.25%.

Whether this is a strategic tweak to buy time for his yield-curve control settings until his decade-long term ends in Aprilor the start of the end for his unprecedented monetary easing remains to be seen. 

Here are the BOJ’s rate. bands being widened.

The yen?

And with the ECB, Fed and now Bank of Japan all tightening, we are seeing sovereign yields rising across the board.

The Japanese sovereign yield curve is upward sloping unlike the humped US Treasury yield curve.

Will the US Treasury Secretary Janet “Statist” Yellen comment?

US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts To -82 Basis Points, Worst Since 1981 As Fed Tightens Policy (112 Straight Days Of Inversion)

Whoop there it is!

The US Treasury 10y-2y yield curve descended further into inversion at -82 basis point, the worst since 1981.

This is not a good sign, since the 10Y-2Y curve typically inverts just prior to a recession.

The current US Treasury curve is currently humped at 1 year, then declining rapidly. The swaps curve is peaking at 9 months, then declining rapidly.

The Fed Funds Futures market is pointing to a peak Fed Funds rate of 5% at the May 3rd FOMC meeting.

Yes, a recession is headed our way.

‘Fragile’ Treasury market is at risk of ‘large scale forced selling’ or surprise that leads to breakdown (Fed tighening to fight Bidenflation as a recession becomes imminent, Dow Futures UP 770 Points For Monday)

Things are getting interesting in DC, to say the least. The US is 100% likely to face a recession in the next 12 months while The Federal Reserve is on its crusade to fight inflation caused by … The Federal Reserve, Biden’s green energy shenanigans and massive, irresponsible Federal spending that even Former Obama economist Lawrence Summers warned would cause inflation. So what will The Fed do? Lower rates and expand their assets purchases to fight the impending recession OR keep tightening to fight Bidenflation? But where we are now is that the fixed-income market could be in big, big trouble.

According to MarketWatch, the world’s deepest and most liquid fixed-income market is in big, big trouble.

For months, traders, academics, and other analysts have fretted that the $23.7 trillion Treasuries market might be the source of the next financial crisis. Then last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged concerns about a potential breakdown in the trading of government debt and expressed worry about “a loss of adequate liquidity in the market.” Now, strategists at BofA Securities have identified a list of reasons why U.S. government bonds are exposed to the risk of “large scale forced selling or an external surprise” at a time when the bond market is in need of a reliable group of big buyers.

“We believe the UST market is fragile and potentially one shock away from functioning challenges” arising from either “large scale forced selling or an external surprise,” said BofA strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and Adarsh Sinha. “A UST breakdown is not our base case, but it is a building tail risk.”

In a note released Thursday, they said “we are unsure where this forced selling might come from,” though they have some ideas. The analysts said they see risks that could arise from mutual-fund outflows, the unwinding of positions held by hedge funds, and the deleveraging of risk-parity strategies that were put in place to help investors diversify risk across assets.

In addition, the events which could surprise bond investors include acute year-end funding stresses; a Democratic sweep of the midterm elections, which is not currently a consensus expectation; and even a shift in the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy, according to the BofA strategists.

The BOJ’s yield curve control policy, aimed at keeping the 10-year yield on the country’s government bonds at around zero, is being pushed to a breaking point.

Well. Bidenflation certainly isn’t helping, but Statist Economist and Cheerleader Janet Yellen can’t bring herself to blame green energy policies, rampant Federal spending or irresponsible Federal Reserve policies for the crisis.

You will note the differences between today and the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The financial crisis gave us a massive surge in government securities liquidity thanks to then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke imitating Japan’s Central Bank and buying US government securities. Fast forward to today and the liquidity index hasn’t budged much since 2010 (except for a little blip around the Covid Fed intervention of early 2020), but we are now seeing near 40-year highs in inflation and a barely declining Fed balance sheet. And M2 Money YoY (mostly commercial bank deposits) are crashing.

I am guessing that The Fed will pivot given that stock futures are way up for Monday. The Dow Jones mini is up 770 points and the S&P 500 mini is up 88.75 points.

Bond market futures (specifically the US Ultra Bond) is down for Monday, meaning yields will be climbing.

While perusing MarketWatch, I noticed this headline from the uber-attention whore Nouriel Roubini: “New Yorkers are ‘stupid’ for moving to Texas, Florida: Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’.” Seriously? Nouriel, you aren’t talking to friends in a Bleeker Street bar. Like Bernanke.

I remember giving a speech at The Brookings Institute in Washington DC. Talk about stranger in a strange land. One person who I was debating got frustrated and said “You are such a … Republican!!!” As if that was the worst slur he could throw at me.

My Kuroda! Dow UP 774 Points And 10Y Treasury Yield Down -2.2 BPS As Japan’s Central Bank Intervenes To Prop Up Currency (Options Expiration Likely Explanation For Stock Surge)

My Kuroda!

Wall Street saw another day of stunning reversals, with stocks rallying after a Treasury selloff sputtered. The yen jumped as Japan intervened again to prop up the currency.

After many twists and turns, the S&P 500 pushed solidly into the green and headed for its best week since June as 10-year yields fell from the highest since 2007.

Probably because The Fed is likely to pivot with impending recession. The Dow is up 774 points this Friday. And today was a huge option expiration day!!

And the 10-year Treasury yield fell -2.2 basis points.

Here is the result of Japan’s intervention.

But today’s numbers were largely monthly stock index option expiration.

Why did it fall upon Powell to be the wielder of the Fed tightening scimitar? Why didn’t Yellen? Because “Good Girls Don’t.” But Powell did.

Have a nice weekend. I will be rooting for Ohio State to annihilate the Iowa Hawkeyes at noon on Saturday.

Winter Is Coming! US Electricity Prices UP 24% Under Biden (S&P 500 Index DOWN -25.3% In 2022 As Fed Rate Reversal Expected In May 2023)

It’s beginning to look a lot like winter. Perhaps we should call Biden “Frosty The Snow Man” because it is going to be a miserable winter for the middle class and low wages workers as Biden’s green energy policies sink in.

The US CPI for electricity is up 24% under Nuclear Joe as The Fed continues to leave their balance sheet relatively untouched.

You might have to bail on the stock market to stay warm this winter, but it is a shame that the S&P 500 index is down -25.3% in 2022 as The Fed counterattacks Bidenflation.

When will The Federal Reserve pivot? That is, when can we sing “Here comes Santa Claus”?

According to the Fed Funds Futures data, Santa Claus is expected to return in May 2023 (rate reversal).

Great Reset?? US Treasury 10yr Yield Tanks -20 Basis Points (UK 10yr Tanks -24.1 BPS)

As I frequently told my investment and fixed-income securities students at Chicago, Ohio State and George Mason University, any 10 basis point change in the US Treasury 10-year yield is significant.

But how about today’s 20 basis point decline in the US Treasury 10-year yield?

The UK’s 10-year yield is down even more at -24.1 basis points. Germany is down -18 bps and France is down -10.3 bps.

Speaking of credit default swaps, Credit Suisse is back to financial crisis levels while UBS and Deutsche Bank are not … yet.

And gold jumped $28.5 dollars today as POP goes the yield.

With all the turbulence in markets thanks to the war in Ukraine and Biden’s green energy mandates and spending (not to mention Statists like Klaus Schwab screaming about a Great Reset), I was reminiscing about more simple times.

Lehman Debacle 2? Credit Suisse Market Turmoil Deepens After CEO Memo Backfires (Credit Suisse’s CDS Now Higher Than During 2008-2009 Financial Crisis)

  • New CEO Koerner sought to reassure employees in Friday memo
  • Shares fall to a fresh record low, gauge of credit risk rises

It is like the Lehman Brothers debacle in 2008 all over again.

(Bloomberg) — Credit Suisse Group AG was plunged into fresh market turmoil after Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner’s attempts to reassure employees and investors backfired, adding to uncertainty surrounding the bank.

The stock, which had already more than halved this year before Monday’s sell-off, fell as much as 12% in Zurich trading to a record low that values the firm at less than $10 billion. That was accompanied by a spike in the cost to insure the bank’s debt against default, which jumped to its highest ever.

Koerner, for the second time in as many weeks, had sought to calm employees and the markets with a memo late Friday stressing the bank’s liquidity and capital strength. Instead, it focused attention on the dramatic recent moves in the firm’s stock price and credit spreads, and investors rushed for the exit when trading reopened after the weekend.

One notable difference between 2008 and today is that Credit Suisse’s equity was flying high in June 2007 then crashed a the global banking crisis went into full motion. We then saw Credit Suisse’s credit default swaps soar in early 2009. But today Credit Suisse’s equity is a pale imitation of its former self, but its credit default swap is now higher than it was at its peak in early 2009.

Credit Suisse is now trading lower than its European rival Deutsche Bank (aka, The Teutonic Titanic).

Yes, this brings back sickening memories of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Let’s see how The Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Switzerland handle this debacle, particularly with M2 Money growth so low.

It appears that we are in another Lehman debacle. Or should I say “Lemur Bros.”

Sink The Bismarck! German 10yr REAL Yield Plunges To -7.89% (US REAL 10yr Yield At -4.43%)

Sink The Bismarck! Or at least sink the German economy.

Between going green and the war in Ukraine, Germany is seeing economic distress (high inflation) and a -7.89% Real 10yr yield. At least the US is seeing “only” a -4.43% REAL 10yr Treasury yield.

Like the US, I wonder who in Germany studied game theory? That is, going green leaves nations vulnerable to foreign nations oil and natural gas supplies. Like Russian natural gas.

The Nash equilibrium is a decision-making theorem within game theory that states a player can achieve the desired outcome by not deviating from their initial strategy. In the Nash equilibrium, each player’s strategy is optimal when considering the decisions of other players.

Unfortunately, the US and Germany have deviated from the initial strategy are are paying dearly with skyrocketing energy prices. Particularly as we enter the winter season.

So, who blew up the Nordstream natural gas pipeline going from Russia to Germany?

I can take a guess.

US Pending Home Sales PLUNGE -22.5% YoY In August As Fed Continues Panzer-like Assault Against Inflation And Consumers

The scalding inflation rate crippling middle class Americans and low-wage workers is causing The Federal Reserve to take action by finally tightening their monetary policy.

As such we are seeing a rapid decline in the US housing market in terms of sales. For August, pending home sales declined -22.5% YoY as expectations of further Fed rate hikes (blue line) soars. Note that impact of The Fed’s and Federal government “sugar rush” after the Covid outbreak in early 2020 and its impact on pending home sales.

Without the “sugar rush,” pending home sales are dying.

Speaking of a sugar crash, risk parity ETF is down 32% from high.

The culprit? The Federal Reserve’s Panzer onslaught! With its leader, Heinz Wilhelm Guderian Jerome Powell.

The Dow is up 500 points today on the expectation that The Fed will stop tightening in the face of global chaos.

As UK 10yr yields fall -50 BPS!! And US T-10 yield drop -20.8 basis points.

Here is a photo of The Federal Reserve attacking American consumers to reduce inflation caused by Biden’s green energy policies and insane spending by Biden/Pelosi/Schumer.

Will Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell be awarded Panzer assault medals for 1) leaving monetary stimulus too large for too long then 2) suddenly tightening stimulus?