The Dream Team (Fed Chair Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen) just can’t believe that inflation struck even after M1 Money Stock increased by 369% from March 2020 to today while interest rates remained near zero.
From The Hill: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday said they underestimated how quickly the U.S. economy would rebound from the COVID-19 recession and strain supply chains.
During a Wednesday hearing before the House Financial Services Committee, the top two U.S. economic policymakers acknowledged that high inflation has risen higher and lingered much longer than they expected.
“We understood demand would be strong,” Powell said. “We didn’t understand [the] significant problems of the supply side.”
Both Yellen and Powell said substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus played a role in stoking the higher demand that fueled inflation, but they called it a challenging side-effect of an otherwise fast recovery.
Seriously? The Fed and the Federal government dumped trillions of dollars into an economic system and didn’t think there would be negative consequences??
Look at the surge in M1 Money Stock at the same time asset-backed commercial paper rates are 0.08%. That is, about 1/3rd The Fed Funds Target rate (upper bound). None of this concerned The Dream Team?
An example of what The Dream Team didn’t see happening was the explosion of home prices. Home price growth was about 4% YoY prior to COVID, and is now 19.51% YoY.
Now we have the US Treasury Actives curve inverting like the US Dollar Swaps curve after 20 years.
Here is a composite photo of Jay Powell and Janet Yellen (to save space). Here is a video of Powell/Yellen composite trying to control inflation.