Little Tariff Effects! US Q3 Real GDP Growth At 3.5%, Real Estate Construction Growth Remains Negative

@MetreSteven @JeffSnider_AIP @DiMartinoBooth @bondstrategist @RaoulGMI @LukeGromen @dlacalle_IA @EconguyRosie @profplum99 @SantiagoAuFund @biancoresearch @pboockvar @SriKGlobal, Agency MBS, Banking, CMBS, CRE, Credit, Economy, Existing Home Sales, fannie mae, Fed, Freddie Mac, GDP, Gold, Housing, Inflation, Mortgage, New Home Sales, Powell, REITs, Silver, SPX, Stocks, Treasuries, Treasury, Wages, Yellen 1 Minute

The US economy is goin’ home! The hysteria about tariffs is nonexistant.

Latest estimate: 3.5 percent — December 05, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent.

Unfortunately, residential and non-residential construction are negative as are imports.

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