Tag: @gregkellyusa

Is That All There Is? US Q4 Real GDP Up Only 0.91% YoY Despite $54.8 TRILLION In Federal Debt (+36%) Added Since January 2020

The US Federal government reminds me of the Peggy Lee song “Is That All There Is?” Since the outbreak of Covid in 2020 and the absurb spending spree by Pelosi and Schumer, the Federal government has increased their debt by 36% to help pay for the Federal spending spree. That amounts to $54.8 TRILLION in additional Federal debt since January 2020.

What did the US economy get for all that Federal spending? In Q4 2022, Real GDP rose by … 0.91% YoY. Seriously? Is that all there is from $54.8 TRILLION in additional Federal debt?

What do you expect when low-life lobbyists shuffle in and out of Congressional offices and the White House. Lobbyists don’t represent middle class America, but represent the elites.

Another bit of lousy news. Look at the trend in S&P 500 Earnings Surprise (5 year).

On the housing front, the US housing market was hit with the biggest six-month wipeout since 2008.

At least US Transportation Secretary “Pothole Pete” Buttigieg FINALLY showed up (three weeks after that East Palestine Ohio train disaster). Here is Buttigieg practising for his press conference.

United States Yield Curve 3M10Y Most Inverted In 30+ Years! (But Other Assets Signaling Cooling Odds Of Recession)

The first headline I saw when I turned on Bloomberg.com was “DOJ Officials Find More Classified Documents at President Biden’s Home.” This is an improvement! So far, the task has been handled by Biden’s private attorneys who don’t have proper security clearance; at least the Justice Department is finally getting involved!

But back to the US yield curve. It is now the most inverted in 30+ years as M2 Money growth stalls. Inverted yield curves have preceded recessions in the past.

But as China reopens and Europe is experiencing a warmer winter than expected (meaning that Europe has sufficient natural gas reserves) and US inflation cooling,

we are seeing market-implied odds of a recession falling in January.

I am still betting on a recession in the second half of 2023.