Fear The Talking Fed! Fed Likely To Pause Tightening Despite Being Only Half Way Home (3.7% Unemployment Implies Target Rate Of 10.12% Versus 5.25% Rate, Fed Balance Sheet Still At > $8 TRILLION)

Don’t kid yourself. The talking heads at The Federal Reserve (more like Feral Reserve) are only about halfway there in terms of rate hikes. There is still over $8 trillion in monetary stimulus sloshing around the economy.

The Taylor Rule implies a target rate of 10.12% while the current target rate is just over half that rate at 5.25%. A little over halfway there and The Fed is likely to pause rate hikes.

Of course, Yellen and Powell think The Taylor Rule is a pork roll product from Trenton, New Jersey.

Fear the talking Fed!