Government response to COVID in the form of business shutdowns resulted in massive job losses, then as governments opened the economy up again, job gains were incredible. The Hill had an article discussing the whipsaw in jobs entitled “Biden is delivering the fastest economic recovery in history. Why hasn’t anyone noticed?”
Well, the US have gone from “fastest economic recovery in history” to real GDP growth of less than 1% (Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1). In addition, the flexible price CPI less food and energy is a whopping 20%.
You can see “The Biden Miracle!” in the following chart. Hires (red line) dropped with Covid shutdowns, then spiked when governments opened economies again. Throw in the trillions of Federal government Covid stimulus and trillions in Fed monetary support, the Biden Miracle sees less like a miracle and more like an extremely expensive way to add jobs. But the interesting problem facing the Administration is the massive spike in job openings relative to hires (again, governments opening-up plus Federal Stimulypto).
Now for a real downer of a chart. Inflation is so toxic that REAL average hourly earnings YoY is down -2.72%. Hardly the best economic growth in history.
Now we have Jerome Powell and The Blackhearts threatening quantitative tightening starting in May. Here is The Fed’s theme song “We love printing money.”
But The Fed is already slowing the growth of monetary base, although this Fed Stimulypto is still growing much faster than pre-Covid.
At least the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve is back above 0 bps as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 forecast falls to under 1%.
Remember, The Fed is planning on shrinking the balance sheet by $95 billion. The Fed’s balance sheet is just shy of $9 trillion. Which is around 1% per month.
With rising expectations of Fed quantitative tightening (QT), residential mortgage rates keep climbing.
Despite a slowing economy teetering on recession and a war raging in Europe, The Fed is tightening monetary policy. Allegedly to fight red-hot inflation.