Category: Swaps

California’s Fiscal Inferno, Part Deux! California Moves To Expand Zero-Down, Interest-Free Home Loan Program To Illegal Immigrants (As If California Home Prices Aren’t High Enough At +33% Under Biden)

California is in the clutches of a fiscal inferno!

California’s budget crisis is projected to expand more than previously thought and could hit a record deficit of $73 billion, according to a new report from the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO). The LAO laid out the grim forecast in a Tuesday report that cautions that a $24 billion “erosion in revenues” corresponds to a $15 billion increase in the state’s budget problem. Due to this, the budget deficit, which last month was estimated to hit $58 billion, could now go as high as $73 billion.

Well, if a $73 billion dollar deficit isn’t bad enough, the California State Assembly took a giant step towards bankruptcy by … seriously … A controversial bill that would let illegal immigrants receive the same kind of homebuyer assistance as U.S. citizens has advanced in the California state legislature, drawing criticism from those who object to granting perks to people who break the law by entering the country illegally.

The measure, Assembly Bill 1840, was first introduced in mid-January, and after several amendments, it advanced last week to the Committee on Housing and Community Development, where it awaits further action.

Assembly Bill 1840 would change existing law to allow illegal immigrants to be eligible for the California Dream for All Fund, which provides interest-free loans for a down payment on a home for first-time buyers.

The bill was introduced by California Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula, a Democrat, who last month told GV Wire, a Fresno-based news outlet, that he “wanted to ensure that qualified first-time homebuyers include undocumented applicants.” (Note to Arambula: According to Redfin, there are no homes for $150,000 or less.

Last week, as the bill advanced to committee after amendments, Mr. Arambula told the Los Angeles Times that, historically, homeownership has been the main way people accumulate generational wealth in the United States.

“The social and economic benefits of homeownership should be available to everyone,” he said, arguing that it’s wrong to exclude people from the benefits of the California Dream for All Fund program just because they’re illegal immigrants.

Some lawmakers expressed opposition to the measure as it moves closer to becoming law.

“Assembly Bill 1840 is an insult to California citizens who are being left behind and priced out of homeownership. I’m all for helping first-time homebuyers, but give priority to those who are here in our state legally,” California Sen. Brian Dahle, a Republican, said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

More Details

The California Dream for All Fund program, administered by the state’s Housing Finance Agency, provides loans for 20 percent of a home’s value but no greater than $150,000. (Good luck finding a house in Los Angeles for under $150,000!) Here is a home in Chico California for $55,000!

Qualifying homebuyers repay the loans when selling or transferring the property plus 20 percent of any appreciation in its value. Applicants who earn less than their county’s area median income get a slight break, having to pay 15 percent of the appreciation. If a home doesn’t appreciate in value, only the principal will be paid back, meaning the loan is technically interest-free.

To make matters worse, Los Angeles housing prices are up 33% under China Joe Biden and California Governor Gavin Newsom. NOW they want to drive housing into even more unaffordable territory with allowing illegal immigrants to buy a home with 100% loan-to-value (100% LTV and NO INTEREST!).

I did find a few homes in Los Angeles for under $150,000 on Redfin. Here is a $125,000 home in Van Nuys.

The proposed bill seeks to amend Section 51523 of the California Health and Safety Code to include a subsection that reads: “An applicant under the program shall not be disqualified solely based on the applicant’s immigration status.”

Mr. Arambula has defended the program, arguing in the interview with GV Wire last month that it won’t affect the state budget because the loans are supposed to be paid back with an appreciation fee.

Even though the net impact of the program on the state budget is technically neutral-to-positive, some critics argue that it sends the wrong message and effectively rewards illegal immigration.

“We have a huge housing crisis in California and anything we can do to get people into housing we should do. However, we should help our own first. This next generation of people growing up can’t afford a house. I’ve got two kids in their early 30s and most of their friends do not own houses,” San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican, told NBC 7 San Diego.

Mr. Desmond has been a vocal critic of policies that he says create incentives for people to enter the country illegally.

“You incentivize illegal immigration by providing free healthcare, free unemployment benefits and tons of other freebies,” he wrote in a recent post on X, reacting to a post by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who called on Congressional Republicans to back President Joe Biden’s border deal.

“It’s no wonder we are getting thousands of people by the day. This is on you as much as the Federal Government,” Mr. Desmond added.

Mr. Desmond said on March 3 that over 5,000 illegal immigrants had been released in San Diego County over the past 10 days.

“What’s striking about the people being dropped here by the Border Patrol is about 70 percent of them are single males,” he told Fox News.

While many of the new arrivals are being taken to the airport by local nongovernmental organizations to fly out to someplace else in the country, Mr. Desmond lamented that “in the meantime, our airport is now the new migrant shelter.”

His remarks come as the United States remains in the throes of an illegal immigration crisis of historic proportions, with some border patrol officials and others warning of a national security risk.

Military-Aged Men Crossing Border

The head of the Border Patrol union recently warned about the sharp rise in the number of military-aged Chinese men crossing the U.S.–Mexico border illegally.

National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said in a recent interview on “Just the News, No Noise” TV program that he believes some of them may be spies working on behalf of China’s communist regime to infiltrate the United States.

“At best, they’re here for a better life,” Mr. Judd said. “At worst, they’re here to be part of the Chinese government to infiltrate our own country.”

Buses drop off large groups of illegal immigrants in San Ysidro, Calif., on Feb. 29, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

His remarks came as U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released its latest data for January encounters with illegal immigrants who crossed the border into the United States.

Aside from showing that Border Patrol agents encountered a record number of illegal immigrants (242,587) in January 2024 compared to any previous January, the CPB numbers show an alarming trend in the number of military-aged Chinese nationals entering the country illegally.

Border Patrol agents encountered 5,717 single Chinese adults in January, more than twice the number of any other January on record, CBP data shows. In December 2023, that figure rose to a record of 7,581, while the total since January 2023 stands at 64,979.

Some analysts say that deteriorating economic conditions in China, along with human rights abuses and policies such as strict COVID-19 lockdowns, are likely driving the increase.

The San Diego Sector has seen a more than 500 percent jump in the number of Chinese nationals entering the country illegally, according to Jason Owens, the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol.

Goodbye Free Markets! Biden’s EV Mandate “Vision” For America Is In Full Collapse (Gasoline Prices UP 46.25% Under Biden, Diesel Prices UP 55.6%)


Goodbye free markets! Hello heavy-handed government cronyism.

So, despite recent declines in energy prices, gasoline prices are still up 46.25% under “Green Joe” and the all important for shipping, diesel prices, are still up 55.6% under Brainless Joe.

One would think that massive rises in gasoline and diesel prices would make everyone buy an electric vehicle (EV). But alas, the high cost and unreliability of EVs is turning off consumers. (I own a hybrid and wish I didn’t).

Another one of the Biden administration’s “visions” for forcing people to own electric vehicles isn’t working out exactly as planned.

This time it deals with supply chain logistics, with Bloomberg reporting this week that in the year and a half since passing the Inflation Reduction Act, automakers are finding out the hard way that the rigorous criteria for manufacturing batteries using materials from the United States and its free-trade allies could render them cost-inefficient compared to global competitors.

Companies like Tesla are instead taking advantage of a temporary shift in the rules to stock up with cheaper batteries from countries like China.

The Biden administration’s new rules will all but cut out China from the supply chain, however, which will make it tougher to find affordable metal suppliers.

This, in turn, will threaten President Biden’s goal to boost the domestic electric vehicle market. Bloomberg writes that mining companies and labor unions insist that without curtailing the influx of cheaper, Chinese-subsidized materials, the U.S. can’t develop a competitive EV market.

Meanwhile, the higher costs are driving automakers away from EVs. And as battery material requirements are set to double by 2027, fulfilling these mandates will be increasingly difficult, putting Biden’s ambitious EV strategy at risk.

The demand side of the equation also looks less than favorable. We wrote just hours ago about how Ford was slashing prices on its Mach E and Lightning 150. Tesla has been slashing prices to stoke demand for nearly a year now. 

Both Ford and GM have said they’re going to curtail their investment in EVs. General Motors, who posted better than expected earnings earlier this month, said that it plans on changing its product lineup to include more hybrid vehicles, drifting away from pure electric vehicles. 

CEO Mary Barra said on the earnings call: “Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035, but, in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environment or environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build this charging infrastructure.”

Recall, a report from Consumer Reports last year found that electric vehicles have almost 80% more problems and are “generally less reliable” than conventional internal combustion engine cars. 

But hey, what good is a “free” market if the government doesn’t have complete and total control of consumer choice, right Joe? After all, Biden drives a gas guzzling Chevy Corvette. When Biden sells his Corvette and buys a Chevy Bolt, I might believe him. Nah!

So, the free market is standing up to Biden’s hard left tyranny.

My new nickname for Biden is Dopey. And Kamala Harris is Happy (because she laughs constantly). Mayorkas is Bashful (he doesn’t do anything). NY Senator Chuck Schumer is Grumpy. Jill Biden is Doc (for her pathetic PhD in Education). The intellectual seven dwarves are running our country into the ground.

US Investment-grade Bond Yields Have Biggest Two-day Drop Since April 2020 And Covid Economic Shutdown (10Y-2Y Treasury Curve Remains Steeply Inverted)

It has been over three years since the disastrous Covid economic shutdowns of 2020. And here we are again!

US investment-grade bond yields have just had the biggest two-day drop since April 2020.

And the US Treasury 10Y-2Y curve remains steeply inverted.

Help me Jerome!

Another Brick In The Mall! Downtown San Fran Office Tower Sells At 66% Off As CRE Crisis Claims Another Victim

Bidenomics represents another brick in the mall. Or office space!

Understanding the backdrop of the crime-ridden progressive metro area of San Francisco, alongside the mass exodus of businesses and residents, and the record-high vacancy rate of office towers, we asked a very important question earlier this summer: What are office buildings worth?

We quickly found out in June that one downtown San Francisco office building sold for roughly 70% less than its previously estimated value, an ominous sign of what would come as the commercial real estate market dominos appear to be falling. 

Now Sixty Spear St., an 11-story building that is 30% occupied and is expected to be entirely vacant by summer 2025, has been sold to Presidio Bay Ventures for $40.9 million, about a 66% discount versus the most recent assessed property value of $121 million, according to local media SFGATE. 

“We acknowledge the formidable challenges that confront San Francisco,” Cyrus Sanandaji, founder and managing principal of Presidio Bay, who is now the office tower’s proud new owner. He remains a bull on the San Francisco office market and wants to expand the building’s square footage from 157,436 to 170,000 square feet and transform it into a “Class-A trophy office building with exceptional design and hospitality-driven amenities.”

All we have to say to Sanandaji’s CRE bet is good luck. The crime-ridden metro area covered in poop must come to terms with City Hall’s horrendous progressive policies that have entirely backfired and led to an exodus of businesses and people. Until Mayor London Breed can instill law and order once more — the ability for the downtown area to thrive once more will remain challenging. 

Marc Benioff, the chief executive officer of Salesforce, the city’s largest employer and anchor tenant in its tallest skyscraper, warned last month that the metro area is in danger. He offered a grim outlook: The downtown area is “never going back to the way it was” in pre-Covid times when workers commuted to offices daily.

“We need to rebalance downtown,” Benioff said, adding Breed needs to initiate a program to convert dormant office space into housing and hire additional law enforcement to restore law and order. 

… and documenting how the downtown area has rapidly transformed into a ghost town is Youtuber METAL LEO, who walks around with a video camera, revealing empty stores, malls, and towers. 

Besides Sixty Spear, SFGATE provided data on other recent tower transactions: 

The 13-story 180 Howard St. building, known for being the headquarters of the State Bar of California, sold for about $62 million after being expected to sell for about $85 million.

The offices at 350 California St. reportedly sold for roughly 75% less than its previously estimated value in May, and the 22-story Financial District edifice mostly sits empty. Just a few weeks later, nearby 550 California changed hands for less than half of what owner Wells Fargo paid for the building in 2005.

Things are so bad that some building owners are just walking away from properties:

And defaulting… 

As the CRE crisis spreads, remember last week: Baltimore Sun Editorial Board Tells Everyone ‘Keep Calm’ Amid CRE Panic … this will only mean bad news for commercial real estate-small banks that could threaten financial stability and either cause a recession or make a recession more severe. 

If you’re curious where we could be in the CRE crisis cycle, a recent analysis by CoStar Group shows 55% of office leases signed before the pandemic that were active during Covid haven’t expired, meaning vacancies will continue to rise. 

Here’s what could be next: The collapse of WeWork will only cause more pain for CRE markets nationwide. The coworking company occupies 16.8 million square feet across the US. 

Bidenomics! Ford Will Lose $4.5 Billion On EVs This Year, Up From $2.1 Billion Last Year (Ford DOWN -48% Since January 2022, GM DOWN -40% As Fed Withdraws Stimulus)

Bidenomics, the term for “Government Gone Wild! in terms of spending and EPA regulations, is a disaster for the US middle class and low wage workers. Even the 1% are now hurting if bought into Biden’s green lunacy. Ford is now down -48% since January 14, 2022 as The Fed started raising rates to fight inflation. GM is down “only” -40%.

Ford is slated to lose $4.5 billion from its EV segment this year, a $1.5 billion larger loss than the company had expected. 

So far this year, the division has lost $1.8 billion and this year’s $4.5 billion loss figure blows away last year’s $2.1 billion loss. Ford also announced that its electric F-150 pickup trucks will undergo a price cut, according to Fox.

Ford beat earnings on Thursday and reported adjusted EPS of $0.72, beating expectations of $0.54. It posted revenue of $45 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 billion, above estimates of $3.15 billion. 

The company also raised its guidance, forecasting adjusted EBIT of $11 billion to $12 billion from $9 billion to $11 billion. The company is now guiding for free cash flow of $6.5 billion to $7 billion, from $6 billion. 

But reality has sunk in about the company’s comments regarding its EV production schedule and spending plans. Price cuts in the industry, led by Elon Musk and Tesla, have thrown Ford’s production targets into a tailspin and Morgan Stanley noted on Friday morning that “major changes to the EV strategy” could be necessary, according to a wrap up by Bloomberg. 

Ford now says it is “throttling back” on plans to ramp up EV production, the wrap up said. It blamed the price war for EVs as part of the cause and told shareholders it would need another year to meet its target of 600,000 EVs produced annually. 

Ford CEO Jim Farley said late last week: “The shift to powerful digital experiences and breakthrough EVs is underway and going to be volatile, so being able to guide customers through and adapt to the pace of adoption are big advantages for us. Ford+ is making us more resilient, efficient and profitable, which you can see in Ford Pro’s breakout second-quarter revenue improvement (22%) and EBIT margin (15%).”

CFO John Lawler said yesterday that the company “has ample resources to simultaneously fund disciplined investment in growth and return capital to shareholders – for the latter, targeting 40% to 50% of adjusted free cash flow,” Bloomberg added. He now says Ford is “not providing a date” for producing 2 million EVs per year, which was previously the company’s target for 2026. 

Ford’s inability to compete with Tesla was noted earlier this year in a piece titled Tesla ‘Weaponizes’ Price-Cuts To Crush EV Competition. 

Is the company pulling an Intel and “kitchen sinking” its guide for the year, or has Elon Musk’s price cuts over at Tesla really put the legacy automaker on the ropes? Ford reports again on October 26, where we’ll get our next glimpse into its continuing operations this year. 

Tesla is down -26% since January 14, 2022. And showing a nice turnaround!

Today, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 11 basis points.

Government Gone Wild!

Powell’d! Interest Expenses Soar At Big Banks As Fed Tightens Money (The Fed Is Playing A Game)

What screams may come! Actually, the aftermath of excessive monetary policies under Bernanke, Yellen and Powell are coming home to bit the big banks.

Interest expenses at big US banks are rising much more quickly than interest income. Across the six largest US banks, interest expenses are set to climb to roughly $78.7 billion from $15.5 billion in the same period last year.

There is still $8.3 Trillion in monetary stimulus sloshing around the monetary system.

The Fed played a game. And is still playing!!

US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Stumbles To -91.166 BPS As 30Y Mortgage Rates Climb To 7.37% (30Y Mortgage Rate UP 156% Under Bidenomics) Since November 3, 2022, US Dollar Index DOWN -9.68%, Gold UP 18.55%, Bitcoin UP 51.11%!

I am anxiously waiting for the US inflation report tomorrow, so I am just looking at the US Treasury yield curve, mortgage rates and cryptos today.

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve stumbled (just like Biden and Bidenomics) to -91.166 basis points as the turnaround in M2 Money growth has stalled. Bankrate’s 30Y mortgage rate is up to 7.37%, that is UP 156% under Bidenomics.

Bitcoin is down today. At least Solana is up.

Since November 3, 2022, the US Dollar Index is DOWN -9.68%, Gold is UP 18.55% and Bitcoin (Elizabeth Warren’s latest obsession) is UP 51.11%.

Biden’s Build Back Better Now Build Back Bankrupt! Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Increased 68 Percent in the First Half of 2023 (Rising Rates Thanks To Bidenflation)

Biden’s massive spending spree (aka, Build Back Better) has a new name: Build Back Bankrupt!

According to Epiq, Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Increased 68 Percent in the First Half of 2023.

NEW YORK – July 03, 2023 — The 2,973 total commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies filed during the first six months of 2023 represented a 68 percent increase over the 1,766 filed during the same period in 2022, according to data provided by Epiq Bankruptcy, the leading provider of U.S. bankruptcy filing data. Individual Chapter 13 filings increased by 23 percent during the same period.

Overall commercial filings registered 12,107 for the first half of 2023, representing an 18 percent increase from the commercial filing total of 10,258 for the first half of 2022. Small business filings, captured as Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, totaled 814 in the first six months of 2023, a 55 percent increase from the 525 elections during the same period in 2022.

Overall commercial filings increased 12 percent in June 2023, as the 2,123 filings were up from the 1,891 commercial filings registered in June 2022. The 404 commercial Chapter 11 filings in June represented a 9 percent increase from the 371 filings in June 2022. Total Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, experienced a 111 percent increase from 94 in June 2022 to 198 in June 2023.

“The increase in commercial and individual bankruptcy filings during the first half of 2023 underscores the economic challenges faced by businesses and individuals,” said Gregg Morin, Vice President of Business Development and Revenue at Epiq Bankruptcy. “Our objective is to provide bankruptcy professionals with timely and accurate data necessary for analyzing stakeholder volumes and trends for making informed business decisions.”

Total bankruptcy filings were 217,420 during the first six months of 2023, a 17 percent increase from the 185,352 total filings during the same period a year ago. Total individual filings also registered a 17 percent increase, as the 205,313 filings during the first half of 2023 were up from the 175,094 filings during the first six months of 2022. The 85,390 individual Chapter 13 filings in the first half of 2023 represent a 23 percent increase over the 69,367 filings during the same period in 2022.

All chapters increased in June 2023 compared to June 2022, with 37,700 total bankruptcy filings representing an increase of 17 percent from the 32,198 filed in 2022. Total commercial filings were up 12 percent from 1,891. Total Individuals were up 18 percent from 30,307.

While not the Epiq data, the Bloomberg Corp Bankruptcy Index shows the rise in bankruptcies as The Fed fights Bidenflation.

US Mortgage Purchase Demand Down -42.3% Under Bidenomics, Mortgage Refi Demand Down -91%, Mortgage Rates UP 131% (As Liquidity Dries Up)

Joe Biden, or “Blow Biden” after the cocaine was discovered in the White House the other day, owns the abysmal mortgage and housing market thanks to The Fed fighting inflation caused by Bidenomics (massive Federal spending and massive Fed stimulus).

Mortgage applications decreased 4.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 30, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Here is the rest on the story:

As liquidity dries up under Bidenomics. Or Yellenomics. Take your pick!

Seriously, can The Biden Administration get any more embarrassing? Or dangerous to American civil liberties?

Bidenomics? US Bank Credit Growth Approaches Stall Speed (0.7% YoY) As M2 Money Growth Reverses Course, But Still Negative Growth At -4% YoY (Biden Contemplates Blocking The Sun To Prevent Global Warming!)

Bidenomics is based on massive Federal spending and massive Fed monetary stimulus. But like all stimulus, it wears off. Such is the case with bank lending as The Fed raises interest rates.

US bank credit year-over-year (YoY) has stalled to a lowly 0.7% rate as M2 Money growth YoY increases slightly to -4%.

White House report signals openness to manipulating sunlight to prevent climate change.

Its figures. With the Socialist Federal Reserve manipulating interest rates and Biden/Congress spending like drunken sailors trying to manipuate economic growth, it makes sense that Biden wants to explore Bill Gate’s idiotic idea of blotting out the sun to prevent global warming.

Of course, Biden can hide at any of his 4 mansions and wear his Ray-ban Aviators to avoid the horror of his policies.