Devil With A Blue Dress? US Home Prices Rose For the 7th Straight Month In September… Led By Detroit! (Illegal Immigration Destinations Lead Nation)

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Detroit?? Or Devil With A Blue Dress??

Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 7th straight month in September (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 0.67% MoM (slightly worse than the +0.8% MoM expected).

That pushed the YoY rise in prices up 3.92% – the fastest pace since Dec ’22 – but as the chart shows the MoM gains are slowing rapidly.

Source: Bloomberg

“On a year-over-year basis, the three best-performing metropolitan areas in September were Detroit (+6.7%), San Diego (+6.5%), and New York (+6.3%),” according to Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI.

“We’ve commented before on the breadth of the housing market’s strength, which continued to be impressive. On a seasonally adjusted basis, all 20 cities showed price increases in September”

But, judging by the resumption of the rise of mortgage rates since the Case-Shiller data was created, we would expect prices to also resume their decline…

Source: Bloomberg

Inventory is increasing (as homebuilders dump new homes on to the market), but existing home-buyers and -sellers are stuck still (affordability for the former and the mortgage cost gap for the latter), and – despite the market’s hopes – The Fed isn’t cutting rates any time soon (unless the economy utterly collapses). Be careful what you wish for…

Odd that 4 metro areas with 6% or higher home price growth are all cities with larger illegal immigrant migration: Chicago, Detroit, New York and San Diego (all blue cities). This is what is called housing displacement, A surge in immigration leads to rent stock being absorbed and housing prices rising.

Published by confoundedinterest17

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