Category: Credit

The Fed Lost Another $653 Million Last Week (Bring Total Realized Losses To More Than $236 Billion Since Sept ’22)

Nobody pisses away money like Washington DC.

The Fed lost another $653 million last week, bringing total realized losses to more than $236 billion since Sep ’22.

Nothing has been the same since the financial crisis and Bernanke’s overreaction.

California Governor “Greasy Gavin” Newsom wants to be President of the USA. He will fit right in with the other spendthrifts in Washington DC.

China, Fauci And Home Prices? Mortgage Demand Plummeted With Covid As Federal Spending Soared (New Home Sales Declined 6.6% YoY In June)

China unleashed the Wuhan virus on the globe, Anthony Fauci convinced Congress to binge spend like drunken sailors on Covid prevention and relief. Homes prices soared, mortgage demand sank and nothing has been the same.

Here is a chart of the Case-Shiller national home price index post Covid outbreak and the hysterical overreaction by Congress and the Administration (including Anthony Fauci).

Another example? New home sales are down 6.6% YoY.

Who do we blame? China? Yes. Anthony Fauci? Yes. Congress? Yes.

US Existing Home Sales Drop 2.7% In June As Median Price Hits Record Of $435,300 (Sales Near 15 Year Low)

US existing home sales dropped 2.7% MoM (vs -0.7% MoM expected) in June leaving existing home sales unchanged year-over-year.

The median sales price increased 2% in June from a year ago to a record high of $435,300.

Meanwhile, The Fed keeps on printing money.

This is a new world for housing and mortgage finance. Outrageous, unafforable housing for millions.

Simply Unaffordable! US House Prices At All-time High Relative To Inflation (At Least Wage Growth Is Higher Than Home Price Growth Under Trump)

Housing in the USA is simply unaffordable!

House prices have exploded since Covid, primarily due to massive Federal spending.

In terms of YoY growth, average hourly earning are exceeding home price growth.

Affordable housing is difficult to achieve at the national level since local politicians control local economies badly. Think LA Mayor Karen Bass who is taking Pacific Palisades which recently burned down and wants to build multifamily housing for low income households. This reminds me of the folly in Long Branch New Jersey where they built low income housing on the beach front. It failed, of course.

Doctor, doctor, we’ve got a bad casing of unaffordable housing.

Here is a picture of US affordable housing policy.

Twist And Shout! US Treasury Yield Curve Has Twist-Steepened As Trump Considers Firing Foul Powell

Currently, bond market investors are singing Twist And Shout as Trump ponders firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In fact, the US Treasury yield curve has TWIST STEEPENED.

The US Treasury curve is indeed steepening its slope.

I strongly urge President Trump to fire Powell and appoint Blue Velvet’s Frank Booth as Federal Reserve Chairman.

And only Pabst Blue Ribbor beer will be served at the Fed’s restaurant in DC. Not Heineken.

CPI: No Inflation In June, But Shelter Prices Up 3.8% YoY (Foul Powell On The Prowl)

US prices rose 0.3% MoM in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS). And on a YoY basis, inflation rose 2.7% while core inflation rose 2.9%.

Supercore inflation was up 3.017% YoY.

As of May, import prices rose a scant 0.0% MoM and 0.2% YoY.

Shelter rose 3.8% YoY in June while gas utilities rose 14.2%.

And on this news, the yield on 30-year Treasuries rose 5%.

Not a chance that Foul Powell will cut rates now.













Mortgage Applications Increased 9.4 Percent From One Week Earlier While Purchase Index Decreased 13 Percent Compared With The Previous Week

Thank goodness “Statist Joe” Biden is gone. Kamala Harris is still lingering around the edges, while the mortgage and housing markets are still suffering from the Biden/Harris regulatory overreach.

Mortgage applications increased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 4, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months. After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels.

Biden claims the foreign leaders have been calling him for advice. Here is one example.

Gov’t Gone Wild! Purchasing Power Of US Dollar Declined 97% Since 1915, US Debt Up 317% Since Jan 2009 (M2 Money Up 210% Since Jan 2009)

It’s Gov’t Gone Wild! That includes The House, Senate, President and Federal Reserve.

The purchasing power of the US Dollar was $1004.4 on 1915-03-01. By 2025-05-01, the purchasing power fell to $31.1, a loss of 97%. Public debt since the last year of GW Bush, Obama/Biden (with a brief hiatus with Trump) rose 317% since January 2009.

M2 Money printing grew 210% since January 2009.

The music??

US Adds 147k Jobs In June, Federal Jobs Decline By -7k (Likely Kills Any Fed Rate Cuts)

So much for the doom porn about tariffs or anything Trump. The US economy is booming. Example? Non farm payrolls (NFPs) in June rose by 147k jobs added.

As opposed to yesterday’s negative ADP report, the NFP continued to grow despite fears of tariffs, etc.

  • Government employment rose by 73,000 in June. Employment in state government increased by 47,000, largely in education (+40,000). Employment in local government education continued to trend up (+23,000). Job losses continued in federal government (-7,000), where employment is down by 69,000 since reaching a recent peak in January.
  • Health care added 39,000 jobs in June, similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in hospitals (+16,000) and in nursing and residential care facilities (+14,000).
  • In June, social assistance employment continued to trend up (+19,000), reflecting continued growth in individual and family services (+16,000).

The positive jobs report likely killed any chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting.