I certainly hope The Federal Reserve starts normalizing interest rates. Hold that Fed tiger!
(Bloomberg) — Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in August, suggesting that demand is moderating as lean inventory and high prices squeezed out some buyers.
Contract closings decreased 2% from the prior month to an annualized 5.88 million, in line with economists’ estimates, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Wednesday. “Clearly the home sales are settling down but above pre-pandemic conditions,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.
Lawrence Yun is correct. There was a huge spike in existing home sales (EHS) following the Covid outbreak and the overreaction by The Federal Reserve (aka, when the ain’ts went marching in). Despite continuing stimulus, but EHS has simmered down.
At least the median price of EHS YoY slowed to 12.1% YoY as The Fed slows M2 Money growth.
Inventory remains relatively low compared to historic levels while price zooms with Fed stimulus.
Want home price growth to slow its insane growth? Hold that tiger! That is, The Fed has to start normalizing interest rates.
The unorthodox monetary stimulus from The Federal Reserve and stimulypto-level spending by the Federal government has resulted in a surge in US housing starts. But that thrill may be gone if the stimulypto is removed.
(Bloomberg) -By Olivia Rockeman- U.S. housing starts rose by more than expected in August, suggesting that the supply and labor constraints that have been holding back construction eased in the month.
Residential starts rose 3.9% last month to a 1.62 million annualized rate after an upwardly revised July print, according to government data released Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 1.55 million pace.
Building permits, meanwhile, increased 6% in August, the biggest gain since January, reflecting a sizable jump in multi-family units. Permit applications for single-family homes also edged higher.
The data suggest that builders are making some construction headway despite limited availability of land, labor and materials, which has slowed residential starts from a 15-year high in March. Despite the bottlenecks, housing starts remain mostly above pre-pandemic levels, which is expected keep construction activity elevated for some time.
1-unit (single family detached) starts got a tremendous jolt from The Fed’s monetary stimulus and Federal governments fiscal stimulus. But government stimulus wears out.
Given the high cost of housing in the USA, particularly in coastal metro areas, we see home price growth raging at over 4 times hourly earnings growth.
As a result, we are seeing a burst of 5+ unit (multifamily) housing starts. Note the burst of 5+ housing starts prior to Covid striking in early 2020.
Permits for 1-unit housing are up only slightly but 5+ unit permits are up 19.7%.
Remember, the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus will lead to a big fiscal cliff.
This is the Steve Urkel economy where The Federal Reserve and Federal government screw everything up with their policies (or follicies) and say “Whoops! Did I do that?”
(Bloomberg) — U.S. consumer sentiment rose slightly in early September but remained close to a near-decade low, while buying conditions deteriorated to their worst since 1980 because of high prices.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index edged up to 71 from 70.3 in August, data released Friday showed. The figure trailed the median estimate of 72 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Buying conditions for household durables, homes and motor vehicles all fell to the lowest in decades. The report said the declines were due to complaints about high prices. Consumers expect inflation to rise 4.7% over the coming year, matching the highest since 2008.
September’s UMich Buying Conditions for Houses fell to 60 … thanks to superheated house prices.
I can just picture Fed Chair Jerome Powell channeling Steve Urkel and saying “Whoops!! Did I do that?”
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Real Earnings Report for August yesterday. And is it pretty depressing for US workers.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.4 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from an increase of 0.6 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Real average weekly earnings increased 0.3 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.
If we look at REAL US housing prices versus REAL average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees, we can see waves of imbalance between the two measures (also known as “bubbles”). Such as today.
But the real horror chart is the following (courtesy of Mish). It shows that real hourly earnings have barely changed since January 1973.
Of course, labor outsourcing to lower labor cost countries is the chief culprit. Karsten Manufacturing, maker of Ping golf clubs, no longer makes their castings in Phoenix AZ thanks, in part, to EPA regulations. Ping clubheads are now made in Asia.
US inflation remained about the same in August as it was in July. CPI YoY fell ever so slightly from 5.4% in July to 5.3% in August. Real hourly earnings remain negative.
The source of consumer inflation? Gasoline prices rose 42.7% YoY while used cars and trucks rose 31.9% YoY.
Shelter rose 2.8% YoY. That is odd since the Case-Shiller national price index is growing at a torrid 18.61% YoY pace and the Zillow Rent Index YoY has recovered to a sizzling 9.24% YoY pace.
The YoY heatmap of inflation.
However, with the exception of home prices and rent, we are seeing a slowing of used car, foodstuffs and regular gas prices over the summer.
The South Florida housing market is sizzling with hot money from the North East, pushing up homes values sky high over the last year. One example of the mania is in Palm Beach, where a private island was bought in July and was relisted months later for a whopping 41% premium, according to WSJ.
One of Miami’s top real estate developers, Todd Michael Glaser, is taking advantage of the bubble, fueled by Wall Street bankers and other elites who have the economic mobility to leave the Northeast for the Sunshine State.
Glaser purchased 10 Tarpon Way, also known as 10 Tarpon Isle, for approximately $85 million in July and has since relisted the tiny 2.5-acre island for $120 million, or $35 million more than he paid a few months ago. The island was created by dredging crews in the 1930s and is only accessible by bridge. Glaser bought the island from private investor William M. Toll and his wife, Eileen, who paid $7.6 million for the property in 1998.
Tarpon Island
The real estate developer said potential buyers have two options: pay the $120 million now or wait ten months for a new renovation for $200 million.
Concept Drawing Of New Renovation
He said with all the hot money flowing into the Palm Beach area, “a $100 million house isn’t that crazy anymore, believe it or not,” adding that in the last 18 months, eight $100 million homes have been sold.
If a potential buyer wants to wait ten months and pay an additional $80 million. The developer will completely redesign the mansion by doubling it to 25,000 sqft, with 14 bedrooms, in addition to a hair salon, gym, and spa. A new pool, octagonal tennis pavilion, and a golf practice area will be installed on the outside.
Some ask how long will this speculation fever last as the Federal Reserve could embark on tapering its extensive bond-buying program later this year or early 2022.
One real estate expert believes the peak of the South Florida housing market could be nearing:
Dr. Ken Johnson, a real estate economist with Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business, told local news WPLG that a peak in the housing cycle could have already arrived, but he believes a crash is not in the mix because demand still outpaces supply.
It remains to be seen if some greater fool will pay the $120 million for the island mansion or $200 million tens months later after renovations.
Not only after home prices screaming at near 20% YoY growth, but apartment rents are surging as well.
(Bloomberg) — Apartment rents were up in August from a year earlier in all the top 30 U.S. metro areas, the first time that’s happened since the start of the pandemic, according to a new report by Yardi.
The national average rent inmulti-family buildings rose 10.3% from a year earlier to $1,539 — the first double-digit rise in the dataset’s history — after a $25 increase in August, the real-estate firm said. Over the past 10 years, the average pace of growth has been 2%.
Zillow’s rent index of all homes is growing at 9.25% YoY.
Fed Chair Jerome “Inflation is Transitory” Powell.
(Bloomberg) — Orchard, which offers cash to homebuyers upfront so they can purchase a new residence before selling their old one, raised $100 million to fuel growth in an ultra-competitive housing market that’s pushing shoppers to find new ways to stand out.
The fundraising round values the startup at more than $1 billion, making it the latest unicorn company to tackle the challenge of simplifying the process of buying or selling a home. Boston-based Accomplice led the round, with existing investors FirstMark, Revolution, First American and Juxtapose also participating.
“We can say we’re a unicorn, which feels good for about five seconds, and then it’s back to the real world of building a business,” Chief Executive Officer Court Cunningham said in an interview. “We’re trying to create a modern way to buy and sell homes, and that’s capital intensive.”
Cunningham, previously CEO of online marketing company Yodle, started Orchard in 2017 to take on what he viewed as a ripe opportunity: Consumers were frustrated with the traditional way of buying and selling homes, and the $1.7 trillion U.S. housing market was big enough to make tackling the problem worthwhile.
Orchard focuses on people who are trying to buy their next home while selling an existing one, a nerve-wracking process that can cause a transaction to collapse or result in households carrying two mortgages. In addition to offering cash to help clients buy their next home, the New York-based company provides funds to make light repairs before listing the existing home on the market. Orchard seeks to profit by operating as a brokerage and earning commissions.
There have always been services that purchase homes from you. Typically, there firms simply pay off your mortgage, so if you have a higher mortgage balance relative to you home value, you may not like what you are offered. But Orchard is not that model.
If you “List with Orchard,” and your home doesn’t end up selling on the open market, Orchard will buy your home. Sellers in some markets also have the option to sell immediately to the company. Orchard wants you to list for 30 days before selling to them for their backup cash offer price. If you sell directly to Orchard, you’ll also pay an additional 1% convenience fee on top of the 6% you’re already paying commission.
When home prices have been rising at a 17-18% YoY pace, this seems like a good model. But what if The Federal Reserve removes it massive monetary stimulus and/or The Federal Government slows down it fiscal stimulus? Then Orchard, if they purchase your home, will likely lose considerable amounts. Being aware of this possibility, Orchard is likely to buy homes at a considerable discount.
But there is still worries about inflation. Here is the Citi Inflation Surprise index.
Publicly traded companies known as iBuyers are pioneering a high-tech approach to home-flipping intended to make selling properties easier. Those firms include Opendoor Technologies Inc., Redfin Corp., and Offerpad Solutions Inc. A fourth, Zillow Group Inc., recently raised $450 million by issuing bonds, backed by the homes it buys and sells.
Economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace in early July through August. The stronger sectors of the economy of late included manufacturing, transportation, nonfinancial services, and residential real estate. The deceleration in economic activity was largely attributable to a pullback in dining out, travel, and tourism in most Districts, reflecting safety concerns due to the rise of the Delta variant, and, in a few cases, international travel restrictions.
The other sectors of the economy where growth slowed or activity declined were those constrained by supply disruptions and labor shortages, as opposed to softening demand. In particular, weakness in auto sales was widely ascribed to low inventories amidst the ongoing microchip shortage, and restrained home sales activity was attributed to low supply.
Growth in non-auto retail sales slowed a bit in some Districts, rising at a modest pace, on balance, across the nation.
Residential construction was up slightly, on balance, and nonresidential construction picked up modestly.
Trends in loan volumes varied widely across Districts, ranging from down modestly to up strongly.
Reports on the agriculture and energy sectors were mixed across Districts but, on balance, positive.
Looking ahead, businesses in most Districts remained optimistic about near-term prospects, though there continued to be widespread concern about ongoing supply disruptions and resource shortages.
Employment and Wages:
All Districts continued to report rising employment overall, though the characterization of the pace of job creation ranged from slight to strong.
Demand for workers continued to strengthen, but all Districts noted extensive labor shortages that were constraining employment and, in many cases, impeding business activity.
Contributing to these shortages were increased turnover, early retirements (especially in health care), childcare needs, challenges in negotiating job offers, and enhanced unemployment benefits.
Some Districts noted that return-to-work schedules were pushed back due to the increase in the Delta variant.
With persistent and extensive labor shortages, a number of Districts reported an acceleration in wages, and most characterized wage growth as strong—including all of the midwestern and western regions.
Several Districts noted particularly brisk wage gains among lower-wage workers.
Employers were reported to be using more frequent raises, bonuses, training, and flexible work arrangements to attract and retain workers.
Prices:
Inflation was reported to be steady at an elevated pace, as half of the Districts characterized the pace of price increases as strong, while half described it as moderate.
With pervasive resource shortages, input price pressures continued to be widespread.
Most Districts noted substantial escalation in the cost of metals and metal-based products, freight and transportation services, and construction materials, with the notable exception of lumber whose cost has retreated from exceptionally high levels.
Even at greatly increased prices, many businesses reported having trouble sourcing key inputs.
Some Districts reported that businesses are finding it easier to pass along more cost increases through higher prices.
Several Districts indicated that businesses anticipate significant hikes in their selling prices in the months ahead.
Here are the highlights by Regional Feds:
Boston: Economic activity in the First District expanded at a modest to strong pace over the summer of 2021. Contacts reported higher prices and wages but complained more about an inability to get supplies and to hire workers. Contacts were optimistic and hoped supply issues would ease in 2022.
New York: Growth in the regional economy moderated, though contacts remained optimistic about the near-term outlook. Employment and wages increased, with businesses reporting widespread labor shortages. Tourism leveled off, and service-sector businesses reported some deceleration in activity. Input price pressures remained widespread, and more businesses have raised or plan to raise their selling prices.
Philadelphia: Business activity continued at a moderate pace of growth during the current Beige Book period – still below levels attained prior to the pandemic. The rise of Delta variant cases has trimmed growth in some sectors, while labor shortages and supply chain disruptions continued apace. Overall, wage growth increased to a moderate pace, while prices continued growing moderately and employment continued to grow modestly.
Cleveland: Economic activity grew solidly, but supply constraints limited many firms’ ability to meet demand. Staff levels increased modestly amid intense labor shortages. Reports of rising nonlabor costs, wages, and prices continued to be widespread. Firms expected demand would remain strong in the near term, but they were less optimistic that labor and supply challenges would abate enough to ease the upward pressure on wages and costs.
Richmond: The regional economy expanded moderately, but many firms faced shortages and higher costs for both labor and non-labor inputs. Port and trucking volumes picked up from already high levels, but manufacturers and services firms experienced delays and long lead times for goods. Employment rose moderately as labor shortages and wage increases were widely reported. Price growth picked up and was robust compared to last year.
Atlanta: Economic activity expanded moderately. Labor markets improved and wage pressures became more widespread. Some nonlabor costs rose. Retail sales increased. Leisure travel was strong and hotel occupancy levels rose. Residential real estate demand remained solid. Commercial real estate conditions were steady. Manufacturing activity expanded. Banking conditions were stable.
Chicago: Economic activity increased moderately. Employment increased strongly, manufacturing grew moderately, business spending was up modestly, construction and real estate rose slightly, and consumer spending decreased slightly. Wages and prices increased strongly while financial conditions slightly improved. There was some retreat in prospects for agricultural income.
St. Louis: Economic conditions have continued to improve at a moderate pace since our previous report. Across all industries, contacts are concerned about the Delta variant and its economic impact. Contacts continued to report that labor and material shortages. Overall inflation pressures remain elevated, but firms reported varying degrees of pass-through to customers.
Minneapolis: The District economy saw moderate growth despite continued inventory shortages and higher prices. Employment grew strongly but hiring demand continued to outstrip labor response by a wide margin. Consumer demand remained strong, leveraging growth in services, tourism, and manufacturing. Drought took a growing toll on agriculture, though higher prices benefited farmers. Minority and women-owned business enterprises saw moderate growth in activity.
Kansas City: Economic activity continued to grow at a moderate pace through August. Demand remains elevated for most businesses, and a majority of contacts expect activity to remain elevated amid the recent surge in COVID cases. Wages grew at a robust pace, but labor shortages persist. As a result of widespread drought, pasture and range land in several states was in poor or very poor condition.
Dallas: The District economy expanded at a solid rate, with broad-based growth across sectors. Employment growth was robust, with a pickup seen in the service sector. Wage and price growth remained elevated amid widespread labor and supply chain shortages. Outlooks stayed positive, though surging COVID-19 cases has added uncertainty to outlooks.
San Francisco: Economic activity in the District expanded moderately. Hiring activity intensified further, as did upward pressures on wages and inflation. Retail sales increased modestly, while conditions in the services sector deteriorated somewhat. Activity in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors increased slightly. Residential construction edged down somewhat, while lending activity remained largely unchanged.
As Milton Friedman once said, “If you put The Federal Government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there would be a shortage of sand.” And The Fed is no slouch at creating shortages either.
The jump is the largest 12-month gain in the index since the series began 45 years ago. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.8% in July from June.
“Home price appreciation continues to escalate as millennials entering their prime home buying years, renters looking to escape skyrocketing rents and deep pocketed investors drive demand,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic, a global property-information firm.
The rush of home buyers — amid extremely low mortgage rates — has caused a lack of supply, which is unlikely to be resolved over the next five to 10 years “without more aggressive incentives for builders to add new units,” he said in a statement.
But it is the forecast for July 2022 that is interesting. A slowdown in home price growth across the board.
Lets see what happens to wage growth are three out of four Americans lose their Covid benefits as of today.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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