As most economists are aware, unemployment rates are not a leading indicator of a recession. But job cuts ARE a leading indicator.
Challenger US job cuts rose 58.8% YoY in June. Combine that with negative REAL wage growth (-3.34% YoY) and we have a problem.
Unemployment rate (U-3) is a poor leading indicator of recession since unemployment rates are the lowest before a recession.
Further signaling problems for the might US economy is the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y). It is inverting.
In this slowing economy, there will be fewer people singing “Take This Job And Shove It!”.
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