The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent.
Unfortunately, residential and non-residential construction are negative as are imports.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 33 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 109 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage rates moved lower in line with Treasury yields, which declined on data showing a weaker labor market and declining consumer confidence. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.32 percent after steadily increasing over the past month. After adjusting for the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, refinance activity decreased across both conventional and government loans, as borrowers held out for lower rates. Purchase applications were up slightly, but we continue to see mixed results each week as the broader economic outlook remains cloudy, even as cooling home-price growth and increasing for-sale inventory bring some buyers back into the market.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.32 percent from 6.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
According to Bill McBride at Calculated Risk, In October, sales in these markets were up 2.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were up 2.9% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.
Miami FL and central Florida lead the nation in closed sales of housing with Columbus OH second with 9.5% YoY growth in closed sales.
Let’s see if Ohio State beats Indiana for the Big 10 championship game on Saturday after OSU whooped Michigan 27-9 and won the gold pants this past Saturday.
Former Detroit Lions HC Matt Patricia, now OSU’s defensive coordinator.
How can the current housing disaster be fixed? One answer is to build more homes (made difficult by local government zoning and building policies). Another is increase household income. But Fed money printing is the easiest way to increase home prices.
Since the Federal government spending spree associated with Covid ended, median household income has declined. But so have home prices.
But in terms of home price growth compared to median household income, you can see that home price growth has slowed after the Covid spending spike, but so did median household income.
Pray that The Fed doesn’t resort to trying to fix the housing market. They will only make things worse.
There was a rush from the northeast US to Florida, now we are seeing a reversal in home prices. Punta Gorda FL, a suburb of Ft Myers, leads the nation with a -20.4% decline from its peak. Austin TX is second at -17.3% from peak. And Fort Myers FL is third at -15.0% from peak. In fact, 11 of the top 30 losers are in Florida. Texas has 6 of the top 30.
Another slice of the data show Punta Gorda FL with -13.3% YoY loss. And Naples FLA is down -11.6% YoY.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 117 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 53.4 percent of total applications from 55.4 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 7.9 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications decreased to 18.8 percent from 19.9 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 15.4 percent from 15.2 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.40 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
But mortgage demand hasn’t been the same is 2021. Rates are higher, mortgage demand is lower. Higher home prices coupled with higher mortgage rates is bad news.
The good news / bad news for immigration enforcement is that home prices are declining as immigration enforcement keeps rolling. Good news for new homebuyers. Bad news for recent homeowners.
US home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.13% MoM in September (very slightly better than the 0.1% rise expected) and up for the second month in a row (after falling for five straight months before). This MoM rise left the average priers up just 1.36% YoY – the lowest since July 2023.
Source: Bloomberg
Declining mortgage rates suggest a rebound in aggregate prices could be looming…
Regional performance reveals a tale of two markets.
Chicago continues to lead with a 5.5% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. These Northeastern and Midwestern metros have sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften.
At the opposite extreme, Tampa posted a 4.1% annual decline – the sharpest drop among tracked metros and its 11th consecutive month of negative annual returns. Phoenix (-2.0%), Dallas (-1.3%), and Miami (-1.3%) likewise remained in negative territory, highlighting particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges.
Home Prices are now falling (YoY) in a majority (11/20) of America’s largest cities…
“The geographic rotation is striking,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to prepandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.”
“Markets that were pandemic darlings—particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas—are now experiencing outright price declines.
And don’t forget the surge in home prices associated with increased M2 money printing around Covid.
Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 125 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.37 percent from 6.34 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent.
Every time the government tries to make housing more affordable, they make the problem worse. Some people should rent and not fall for the government’s latest folly, the 50-year mortgage.
True, the 50-year mortgage would lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars (see the following example where the monthly payment falls from $2,349 to $2,083. Or from $2,349 to $2,226 if the most rate increases with the longer mortgage life. BUT total interest paid increases 87% if the 50-year rate remains the same and 105% if the rate rises.
Principal paydown slows to a crawl with a 50-year mortgage, leaving the lender (or mortgage holder) exposed to higher risk if home prices fall.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.