Another bad housing report for July, this time its housing starts.
Housing starts declined in July to the lowest level since the Covid economic lockdowns.


Housing starts fell -6.8% in July.

On a YoY basis, housing starts fell -14.8% YoY.

Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
Another bad housing report for July, this time its housing starts.
Housing starts declined in July to the lowest level since the Covid economic lockdowns.


Housing starts fell -6.8% in July.

On a YoY basis, housing starts fell -14.8% YoY.

After the unoriginal Vice President Kamala Harris stole former President Trump’s proposed ‘no tax on tips’ policy, she’s at it again with yet another recycled idea. This time, she’s echoing President Biden’s actions and rhetoric to crack down on sky-high food prices by proposing the first-ever federal ban on “corporate price-gouging in the food and grocery industries”—a move that reeks of socialism.
“There’s a big difference between fair pricing in competitive markets, and excessive prices unrelated to the costs of doing business,” the Harris campaign wrote in a statement, adding, “Americans can see that difference in their grocery bills.”
The Harris campaign said the vice president will unveil the new federal proposed ban on Friday at a campaign rally in the battleground state of North Carolina as part of a broader economic policy platform. The proposal will ensure food companies can’t exploit consumers to increase profits, according to CBS News, citing Harris-Walz campaign officials.
Harris’ policy speech will also call on the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys to examine corporations violating price-fixing rules. Her remarks are expected to echo Biden’s actions and rhetoric, especially with his war against meat processing companies that he alleges are responsible for higher burger prices at the supermarket.
VP Harris’ campaign argues that lowering Americans’ costs is a function of socialist-style price controls. Yet this is the quickest way to understand that Harris’ economic team has no actual understanding of inflation.
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni explained, “Here’s your “price gouging” narrative: average costs paid by businesses have risen just as much as costs charged to consumers – if businesses are being “greedy,” they’re doing it all wrong…”

Instead of curbing out-of-control government spending, which debt rises $1 trillion every 100 days, and understanding that monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation is the root cause of inflation, Harris deflects the actual problem: The Fed. She instead goes after big corporations for ‘illegal price gouging.’
Here’s a snippet of Money Metals Midweek Memo’s Mike Maharrey commenting on Harris’ proposed price-fixing ban on big food companies:
The second “dumb” idea Maharrey discussed came from Vice President Kamala Harris, who was recently asked about her plan to combat inflation. Maharrey criticized her response, which he described as “word salad,” pointing out that she merely acknowledged the problem without offering any concrete solutions. Instead, she promised to take on “big corporations” engaging in “illegal price gouging,” corporate landlords, and big pharma.
Maharrey argued that Harris’s approach misses the root cause of inflation, which is monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation. He cited the July budget deficit data, revealing that the Biden administration spent another $574 billion in just one month, running a $243 billion deficit. Maharrey emphasized that inflation is not caused by corporate greed but by the government’s excessive spending and borrowing.
“Price inflation is a symptom of monetary inflation, which has everything to do with money creation by the Federal Reserve,” Maharrey explained. He warned that Harris’s proposed policies, including price controls, would likely lead to shortages and exacerbate the problem rather than solve it.
Kamalanomics = ‘communist economics’ as some X users describe…
“We are no longer talking about hypothetical communism, we are talking about two straight up communists who want to institute a federal price ban on food and a federal minimum wage that is going to make every corporation go out of business.
…
Voting for communism is not the solution to your precious feelings.”
Grocery stores have a 3-4% profit margin if they are lucky.

Freddie King said it best! Interest rates are goin’ down!
Yes. traders expect The Fed to cut their target rate from 5.50% (current rate) tp 4.297% by the December meeting. That is a whopping 120 basis points.

And expect another 100 basis points of cuts by the September 2025 Fed FOMC meeting. Down to 3.232%.
Mortgage rates will fall.

Like the Roman Empire. Et tu Kamala?

Core inflation is still hot at 3.2% YoY, although cooling.


Core CPI also rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), and the YoY rate of inflation slowed to 3.2% (from 3.3%) – the lowest since April 2021…

However, that is the 50th straight month of MoM increases in Core CPI, and a record high…

Under the hood, used car prices fell 2.3% along with airline fares (-1.2%) while Car insurance costs jumped 1.2% and furniture prices rose 0.3%…

Finally, the so-called SuperCore CPI rose 0.2% MoM (same as the rest), dragging the YoY down to 4.73% (still notably elevated)…

A sad reminder about the impact of Biden/Harrisnomics on food prices.

Inflation is still crazy after 4 years of Biden/Harris. What will The Fed do?

Energy prices picked up MoM while Services prices tumbled by the most since March 2023…

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods rose 0.6% in July, the largest advance since a 1.1- percent jump in February. Nearly 60 percent of the broad-based increase in July can be traced to the index for final demand energy, which moved up 1.9%. Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.2 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.
Product detail: A quarter of the July rise in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 2.8-percent advance in prices for gasoline. The indexes for diesel fuel, meats, jet fuel, fresh fruits and melons, and basic organic chemicals also increased. Conversely, prices for electric power decreased 1.1 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables and for steel mill products also moved down.

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services fell 0.2 percent in July, the largest decrease since moving down 0.2 percent in March 2023. The July decline can be traced to the index for final demand trade services, which dropped 1.3 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services rose 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Leading the July decline in prices for final demand services, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling decreased 4.1 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing, automobiles retailing (partial), automotive fuels and lubricants retailing, desktop and portable device application software publishing, and physician care also fell. Conversely, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.3 percent. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling and for truck transportation of freight also rose.
We would expect portfolio management fees to drop next month as stocks were slammed…

Core (Ex-Food and Energy) was unchanged MoM and plunged from +3.0% to +2.4% YoY…

However, ex-Trade-Services, PPI increased to +3.3% YoY…

Companies are feeling the squeeze as they eat the difference between CPI and PPI…

In summary,

Is this The Big Short, CMBS style?
The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years.
The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years.
Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
A top AAA-rated CMBS experienced a $40 million loss in May for the first time since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

While not an office, Edward Hopper painted some great real estate properties!

This will not end well. We’ve got trouble in (Potomac) River City!
Credit card interest rates have skyrocketed to a shocking 21.51%. Moreover, credit card debt has hit record highs1.51%.

Kamala Harris, despite being VP for almost 4 years, is going to annouce her plans for taming inflation. Why doesn’t she do it now?? What Harris can’t control is The Federal Reserve that is losing money at breakneck speed.

Here is The Fed’s balance sheet.

I shudder to think what Harris will propose to solve the highest bankrupty (Chap 11) rate in 13 years. Probably more Bidenomics (big wealth transfers to large corporations/donors).

Meanwhile, foreigns pulled a record amount of funds from ailing China.

Kamala Harris will say anything to get elected, then fall back on her Communist agenda.

I have another use for VIX … to wipe out stock market gains. VIX is the S&P 500 volatility index, also known as “The Fear Index.”
Over the last 35yrs, the whole life of VIX history, there have only been 2 prior episodes of VIX trading >60: The 1st was during GFC, the collapse of Lehman, the 2nd episode occurred during Covid and we had a 3rd occurrence: that was last Monday.

VIX … wiping out stock returns!

We know several things about the yield curve. First, it goes negative before recessions. Second, it is related to the inverse of The Fed’s target rate (blue line).

How about the US mortgage rate? Generally, US Mortgage rates are inverse to the 10Y-3M yield curve, but lately the US mortgage rate (pink circle) have declined with the 10Y-3M yield curve.

The yield curve does forecast recessions, but is unreliable in forecasting mortgage rate movements.

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