Mortgage Demand Decreased 1.9 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 2 Percent, Refinance Index Decreased 3 Percent)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage originations are still strong for the 760+ bucket.

Let’s see how California’s Prop 50 (Gavin Newsom’s attempt to give Democrats a majority in the US House of Representatives) works?

Fed’s QT Surprise! Powell Announced That Maturing Mortgage-backed Securities (MBSs) Will Be Reinvested Into Short-term Treasury Bills

Like tuna surprise (bleech!!), Fed Chair Powell announced a move towards reinvesting maturing MBS into ST Treasury bill decreasing the duration of The Fed’s balance sheet.

Fed’s QT Surprise: Powell announced that maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) will be reinvested into short-term Treasury bills instead of longer-duration Treasuries, signaling a shift toward a shorter-duration balance sheet.
🧭 Strategic Implications: This move distances the Fed from potential “yield curve control” strategies and aligns with pre-2008 norms, where the average maturity was under 3 years—suggesting a long-term pivot in portfolio structure.
💰 Market Impact: The decision, coupled with rising Treasury yields and upcoming refunding announcements, intensifies pressure on the 10-year yield, especially as the Treasury seeks to fund a $38 trillion debt load with more short-term instruments.

I just hope the Nittany Kittens (Penn State) don’t surprise Ohio State in today’s football game!

Drop In Mortgage Rates Fueling Mortgage Demand (Purchase Demand Nearing 2022 Levels)

The September drop in mortgage rates is sparking the biggest boom in refinancings since the pandemic. Mortgage-refinancing applications have surged above the decade average, despite that period including the record-breaking refi boom of 2020-21 when rates fell to all-time lows. Purchase-loan demand has also rebounded to its best for this time of year since 2022, yet remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Purchase demand (applications) nearing 2022 levels.

While not mortgage-related, gold is soaring!!

Thanks to Bloomberg’s Erica Adelberg for her amazing charts.

Mortgage Demand Decreased 4.7 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 1 Percent)

Feelin’ stronger for the most part.

Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications.

Mortgage demand dwindled since Covid and Biden/Powell and hasn’t recovered.

Shutdown! Mortgage Demand Falls 12.7% From Previous Week (Purchase Index Fell 2%, Refi Index Fell 21% As Mortgage Rates Rose)

Shutdown!

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.

Yes, the Federal government has shut down.

New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July (Median Price Declines -5.9% YoY Despite Fed Money Printing)

What do you do with The Federal Reserve who keep printing money?

According to the US Census Bureau, New Home Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent (±15.5 percent)* below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent (±14.0 percent)* below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.

Median and Average Sales Price

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $403,800. This is 0.8 percent (±5.9 percent)* below the June 2025 price of $407,200, and is 5.9 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the July 2024 price of $429,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $487,300. This is 3.6 percent (±8.0 percent)* below the June 2025 price of $505,300, and is 5.0 percent (±8.6 percent)* below the July 2024 price of $513,200.

Here is a chart of median sales price of new homes against Fed money printing (M2).

Despite A Glut Of 1-Unit Homes For Sale (511k), 627k Units Built In June (Multifamily Starts Soar!)

Celebrate, dance to THEIR music. Housing construction is massively overregulated leading to a glut in unaffordable housing being built.

I mentioned the glut of new builds in my post yesterday. Construction remains over-regulated driving up the costs of new builds

As you can see, new single family homes for sale is 511,000. But single family homes under construction was 627,000 units in June.

Not surprisningly, housing completions were up in June, but generally down since late 2024.

Multifamily starts soared in June (red line).

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Falls For 3rd Straight Month In May -0.3% MoM (Despite Fed Money Printing)

US home prices fell for the 3rd straight month In May. The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.29% (-3.5% annual rate).

Despite continued money printing by The Fed.

Crazy Train! Mortgage Applications Decreased 2.6 Percent From One Week Earlier (Home Prices Rose 39% Under Biden While Mortgage Originations At Large Banks Fell -61%)

All aboard! The crazy mortgage train! Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%. The mortgage market is still recovering from Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%.

Into The Mystic? Mortgage Applications Decrease 3.9% In Latest MBA Weekly Survey (Purchase Apps Drop 15%)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 30, 2025. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Most mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.92 percent and staying in the 6.8 to 7 percent range since April.

Biden/Harris/Yellen’s gross economic mismanagement reminds me of the song “Into The Mystic.” Because it requires a mystic to determine WHO was running the Biden/Harris adminstration and using the autopen.